During Trump's presidency, which types of unemployment will reach new highs?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: U-1 at about a 15% chance.
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Definitions from gpt4o: U-1: The percentage of the labor force unemployed for 15 weeks or longer. This is a very narrow measure focusing on long-term unemployed individuals. U-2: The percentage of the labor force who lost jobs or completed temporary jobs. This also focuses on job losers, particularly those who may face short-term unemployment. U-3: The official unemployment rate, which represents the total number of unemployed people actively seeking work as a percentage of the labor force. This is the most commonly reported unemployment figure. U-4: Includes U-3 but adds “discouraged workers”—individuals not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them or there are none for which they qualify. U-5: Includes U-4 and adds other “marginally attached workers”—those who are not looking for work for various reasons (such as school or family responsibilities) but still want and are available for a job. U-6: The broadest measure, which includes U-5 and adds people working part-time for economic reasons. This group includes those who are working fewer hours than they would like or in part-time positions due to economic constraints. Record would stem after 1994 - when major redefinitios of unemployment occurred
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