What will be the most numerous type of fusion power plant in 2100?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: D-T, magnetic confinement at about a 39% chance.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
To count as a fusion power plant, the majority of the energy has to be derived from fusion and it has to output more power than it takes in. If most of the fusion energy comes from D-T fusion, but some other reactions also take place, that counts as D-T.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
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