Chinese invasion of Taiwan mega market (30k subsidy)
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: China sanctioned by US + Europe at about a 78% chance — likely.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
At Market creation manifold is pricing a ~40% chance of invasion by 2030. If an invasion occurred, this would certainly be the most important day in history so far in my life. Therefore details of how it might unfold deserve significant attention and analysis. Unless stated otherwise, all the questions in this market are conditional on an invasion and will resolve NA if an invasion does not occur by market close (which may be extended). I will trade to set some initial prices to recoup some of my mana, but otherwise will not trade. See also: (https://manifold.markets/embed/Daniel_MC/when-will-china-invade-taiwan?play=true)Update 2025-03-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Malacca Strait Blockade Clarification The resolution criteria confirm that a blockade limited to Chinese ships or ships ultimately heading for China meets the condition for a blockade event. Update 2025-03-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Combat Troops Specification: Type of Troops: Only U.S. troops serving in a combat role are counted. Timing Requirement: These troops must be present in Taiwan on the day of the invasion. Continuity Requirement: They must not be withdrawn before the invasion occurs.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
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2 outcomes
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