[Metaculus] Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 23% chance — unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 23% right now.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
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Polymarket or Kalshi?
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2 outcomes
Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?
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Yes ≈ 26% chance