Russia/Ukraine ceasefire before August?
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 3% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 3% right now.
Despite a flurry of diplomatic activity and a softening of Zelenskyy's public stance, the market sees near-zero chance of a formal ceasefire before August because Russia's explicit rejection of a pause (Türkiye Today, Jul 24) and insistence that only the U.S. can provide credible deterrence (Ukrinform, Jul 25) make a binding agreement within the five-day window virtually impossible.
📊 Base rate: Ceasefires in active high-intensity wars historically occur after months of battlefield stalemate or decisive victory, not within a week of a public rejection by one party.
What's driving it
- • Russia's categorical refusal to agree to a ceasefire pause, arguing it would only allow Ukraine to rearm (Türkiye Today, Jul 24), directly contradicts the core condition of the market.
- • Zelenskyy's statement that a ceasefire is 'better' than prolonged fighting (Anadolu Ajansı, Jul 24) and reports of new peace initiatives coordinated with the U.S. (ukranews.com, Jul 24) suggest diplomatic movement, but the market prices this as talk, not a binding agreement before August.
- • The White House announcement of a Trump-Zelenskiy meeting next week (Reuters, Jul 24) places any potential breakthrough after the market's July 31 deadline, reinforcing the 'No' odds.
The case for YES
- • Zelenskyy's shift to calling a ceasefire 'better' than fighting for victory (Anadolu Ajansı, Jul 24) signals unprecedented Ukrainian flexibility that could lead to a sudden agreement.
- • Ukraine and the U.S. are actively coordinating new peace initiatives to present to Russia (ukranews.com, Jul 24), and a surprise breakthrough before the meeting could theoretically be announced.
- • Ukraine's deep-strike capabilities could create a battlefield incentive for Russia to accept a limited ceasefire (TVP World, Jul 24) to halt those strikes.
The case for NO
- • Russia has explicitly ruled out a ceasefire pause, stating it would let Ukraine rearm (Türkiye Today, Jul 24), making a formal agreement within five days extremely unlikely.
- • The key U.S.-Ukraine meeting is scheduled for next week (Reuters, Jul 24), which is after the market's July 31 deadline, removing the most likely forum for a deal.
- • An expert assessment that only the U.S. can guarantee credible deterrence after a ceasefire (Ukrinform, Jul 25) implies that a ceasefire without such a guarantee is not viable, and no such guarantee is in place.
What to watch
- • July 27-28: Any leaked details from the U.S.-Ukraine peace initiative coordination (ukranews.com, Jul 24) showing a concrete proposal could slightly increase 'Yes' odds, but a Russian rejection would solidify 'No'.
- • July 29-31: A surprise public statement from Putin or Lavrov indicating openness to a temporary truce would be the only event that could significantly move odds toward 'Yes'.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Myriad’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Resolved on-chain per the rules written into each market (stablecoin-settled). On-chain settlement is transparent but, like any market, only as good as the rules it was written with.
Resolution criteria
**Market Dates:** - **Market Period:** From the publication date to July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. - **Market Close:** July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. - **Resolution Time:** This market will be resolved after the Market Close, or earlier if the outcome is reached. **Yes/No Criteria:** - Resolves to **"Yes"** if both Russia and Ukraine formally agree to a complete ceasefire through an official, publicly announced agreement before or at Resolution Time. The agreement must mandate a total cessation of all military operations—including but not limited to ground, air, naval, and cyber warfare—across all territories involved in the conflict (e.g., Ukraine, Russian-occupied territories, and border regions). Additionally, the ceasefire must be bilateral, with both Russia and Ukraine explicitly committing to halting all offensive and defensive military actions against each other, and it must apply to the entire conflict zone without geographic exceptions (e.g., it cannot exclude specific regions like Donbas or Crimea). - Resolves to **"No"** if all of the above conditions are not met before the Market Period ends **Resolution:** - To confirm Ukraine’s agreement to the ceasefire, the official President’s website will be used as resolution source: <https://www.president.gov.ua/en> - To confirm Russia’s agreement to the ceasefire, the official government’s website will be used as resolution source: <http://en.kremlin.ru/> - To trigger a “Yes” resolution, the ceasefire must come into effect during the Market Period - The official social media accounts of both Ukraine and Russia will be used as secondary sources if needed The following scenarios will not trigger a “Yes” resolution: 1. Humanitarian Pauses: Temporary halts in fighting for humanitarian purposes, such as allowing civilian evacuations or aid deliveries, do not qualify 2. Informal Agreements: Verbal, unofficial, or non-binding commitments do not qualify 3. Partial Ceasefires: Agreements that cover only specific
Related markets
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
The field is virtually nonexistent: only two candidates register at 1% each, and no one has broken 5%, making this the most open Democratic nomination race in modern history. The single biggest recent shift is the DNC's decision to put South Carolina first in the 2028 primary calendar (Axios, Jul 25), which could reshape candidate strategies and favor a different type of contender.
2 outcomes
Fed Decision in July?
The market is essentially a two-way bet between no change (78%) and a 25 bps hike (21%), with the Fed chair's deliberate opacity (MarketWatch, Jul 25) and a vocal economist warning of a surprise (Business Insider, Jul 24) keeping the field from being a near-certainty for no change.
5 outcomes
Next Prime Minister To Replace Keir Starmer
The field is highly concentrated, with Andy Burnham absorbing nearly all of the probability after Starmer’s resignation and a key endorsement, pushing the top three candidates' combined odds to an unsustainable 110% that signals liquidity imbalances or heavy speculative positioning. The biggest recent shift is Burnham’s surge to 99% following the ‘Starmer Announces Resignation; Burnham Wins Key Endorsement’ headline (The New York Times, Jun 23).
31 outcomes
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
The Republican nomination market is essentially a blank slate with no declared candidate, as the combined odds of the two listed figures (Byron Donalds at 1%, Mike Pence at 0%) barely exceed 1%, indicating the race is wide open for any major figure to enter and become the immediate front-runner.
2 outcomes
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Despite Newsom's commanding lead, the field is far from settled: the 20% 'Other' share and AOC/Ossoff's recent gains per Action Network (Jul 8) suggest a pool of anti-Newsom sentiment waiting for a viable alternative.
8 outcomes
Keir Starmer Exit Date - Year
The field is virtually collapsed into a single outcome — 2026 — after Starmer's own party briefed his resignation plan to clear the way for Andy Burnham, compressing nearly all probability into this year and leaving only a 2% tail for any later date.
4 outcomes