Trump’s approval ratings
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Disapprove at about a 52% chance — a coin toss.
Despite disapproval leading by a narrow 4-point margin, the recent crash in male approval to a record low signals a structural weakness, yet a slight rebound in one poll from the same day shows high volatility tied to the escalating Iran conflict.
📊 Base rate: Trump's historical approval average during his presidency was 41% approve, according to Gallup, making the current 48% approve odds above his typical baseline.
What's driving it
- • Approval among men crashed to a record low in a Newsweek poll (Jul 22), dragging down overall numbers.
- • The escalating Iran conflict, noted in a Detroit Free Press article (Jul 22), is cited as a factor influencing public opinion.
- • A KSTP/SurveyUSA poll (Jul 22) showed a slight rebound in Trump's approval, contrasting with the record low narrative.
Why the front-runners lead
- • Disapproval leads at 52% because of sustained negative coverage, including a USA Today report of near-record lows (Jul 21).
- • The drop in male approval, a key demographic, solidifies the disapproval advantage.
- • The Iran conflict may be reinforcing disapproval if seen as a foreign policy crisis.
Why it's still open
- • Approval could overtake if the slight rebound in the KSTP/SurveyUSA poll (Jul 22) becomes a trend, signaling a rally-around-the-flag effect from the Iran conflict.
- • The narrow 4-point gap means a single major event or poll could flip the sentiment.
- • If Trump successfully navigates the Iran situation, approval could rise, as suggested by the CNN article (Jul 21) about potential fights over Netanyahu.
What to watch
- • Further Iran conflict developments (e.g., escalation or de-escalation) in the coming weeks could shift approval either direction.
- • Release of major national polls (e.g., Gallup, Pew) in late July or August will provide new data points.
- • A potential Trump speech or policy announcement regarding the Middle East could serve as a catalyst.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Myriad’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Resolved on-chain per the rules written into each market (stablecoin-settled). On-chain settlement is transparent but, like any market, only as good as the rules it was written with.
Resolution criteria
**There are zero trading fees charged for this market.** **This market is to gauge social sentiment, is trading only, and will never be resolved towards either option.**\ Love him or loathe him, few figures stir the public mood quite like **Donald J. Trump**. He doesn’t just dominate headlines—he divides opinions, shapes conversations and captures the nation’s pulse like no one else. So, where do you stand about Trump: do **you** approve or disapprove? **Resolution Criteria:** - This market will not resolve **Resolution Details:** - No resolution can be triggered in this market **Cancelation (Invalidity) Conditions:** This market will be canceled/invalid if: - Myriad Markets undergoes a changing of its contract that demands a cancelation of all active markets, or similar technical or business imperatives - Myriad Markets decides it is time for this market to cease to exist *In the event of cancelation, participants may claim their stakes at the market value of their open positions at the time of cancelation. This could result in a profit or a loss, depending on the price of their outstanding shares.*
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