Kristi Noem impeached in 2026?

🗂 Part of event: Kristi Noem impeached in 2026? →

12¢Yes

12% 1 pts all-time

Yes

12¢

88¢

💡 What the odds say

The market puts this at about a 12% chance — very unlikely.

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Across venues

· updated 25mPredictPal Consensus

12%blended Yes · 2 venuesMedium reliability

The same question trades on 2 venues — prices range 1%–12%. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.

The prediction markets collectively imply about a 12% chance that Kristi Noem will be impeached in 2026, though the play-money market on Manifold shows much lower odds (1%), likely due to different user incentives or lower liquidity.

Polymarketshown above

$19.2K vol12%

Manifold· PlayPlay moneyCheapest Yes

Ɱ1.2K vol-10 pts

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My predictions →

No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 12% right now.

StatusOpen

ClosesDec 31, 2026 · 5mo

Total volume$19.2K

Liquidity

Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.

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How it resolves

Optimistic oracleSettled by UMA's optimistic oracle

Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.

⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (5mo)

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of United States Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.

View the official rules on Polymarket ↗