Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?
🗂 Part of event: Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 51% chance — a coin toss.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 51% right now.
The market is nearly a coin flip, but the 10-point drop in Yes odds over the past week indicates fading speculative enthusiasm, possibly due to competing projects like Variational drawing attention and capital.
What's driving it
- • The 7-day decline of 10 percentage points in Yes odds signals a shift in trader sentiment without a clear positive catalyst for Predict.fun's token launch.
- • Binance's focus on Variational as the new perp DEX (2026-05-20) may divert liquidity and hype away from Predict.fun, reducing its FDV prospects.
- • A $50 million funding round for Variational (2026-05-20) raises expectations for airdrops in that ecosystem, potentially lowering the relative appeal of Predict.fun's token.
The case for YES
- • The $50 million funding round for a similar project (Variational) suggests strong investor appetite for prediction/perpetual DEX tokens, which could carry over to Predict.fun.
- • Airdrop expectations from the funding wave could drive initial demand for Predict.fun's token, pushing its price above the $500M FDV threshold shortly after launch.
- • Broad market enthusiasm for crypto prediction markets may sustain a high valuation for Predict.fun on day one, even in a competitive landscape.
The case for NO
- • The $500M FDV threshold is very high; most new crypto tokens fail to reach that valuation on their first day of trading, even with strong hype.
- • Competition from Variational, which just secured $50M in funding and is now a focus for Binance, could split trader attention and capital, lowering Predict.fun's initial market cap.
- • The recent 10-point drop in Yes odds suggests that informed traders or early backers are betting against a $500M+ FDV, possibly due to insider knowledge of supply or demand.
What to watch
- • Announcement of Predict.fun's token launch date (likely to increase Yes odds if launch is imminent).
- • Listing of Predict.fun's token on a major exchange like Binance (would increase Yes odds due to liquidity and price discovery).
- • Any negative regulatory news targeting prediction markets (would decrease Yes odds as it reduces legal clarity and demand).
Sources
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Polymarket ↗Related markets
Which price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
The field is overwhelmingly concentrated on Bitcoin reaching $65k and $75k in 2026, both at 99%, reflecting the current price near $64k and a strong bullish consensus. The single biggest recent shift is the surge in odds for $65k to near certainty as Bitcoin approached that level, confirmed by the July 20 headline 'Bitcoin price hits $65K wall'.
7 outcomes
ETH Up or Down - Daily
The market is pricing an 84% chance of an ETH daily up move, but the recent headlines paint a picture of extreme bearish sentiment and technical weakness, suggesting the odds may be overconfident in a short-term bounce.
Yes ≈ 85% chance
Which price will Bitcoin hit in July?
The market is effectively settled: with Bitcoin trading above $65,000 as of July 26 and only five days left in July, the 98% odds for $65,000 reflect a near-certain outcome rather than a speculative bet, leaving no room for the other two price levels.
3 outcomes
Which price will Solana hit in July?
The $70 target leads at 30%, but the field is far from decided; the single largest recent shift appears to be the mixed impact of a record stablecoin market cap and a $1.65M exploit on the same day (July 20), which may have widened the probability spread.
3 outcomes
What will be the price of Bitcoin at the end of 2026?
The field is heavily concentrated in the $60k–$90k range (81% combined), with the leading $60k–$75k bracket at 53% — a bet that Bitcoin's bear market bottoms and recovers modestly by year-end, but does not break out above $105k (only 6%). The biggest recent shift is the 53% leader absorbing share from the $75k–$90k and below-$60k bins, likely driven by the July 18 report of massive call spreads targeting $72,000 around the Fed meeting (CoinDesk, Jul 18) and the July 24 analysis suggesting the bear market may end before the four-year cycle predicts (Bitcoin Foundation, Jul 24).
5 outcomes
BTC next move: Pump to $84K or Dump to $55K?
The market is binary and highly concentrated with the $55K dump at 65% odds, but the lack of recent headlines suggests the odds are driven by persistent sentiment rather than a specific catalyst, leaving the $84K pump as a viable tail risk.
2 outcomes