Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?
🗂 Part of event: Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 71% chance — likely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 71% right now.
The market heavily favors 'No' at 84%, reflecting skepticism that any AI model will achieve a 1575 Math Arena score by end of 2026, despite Google's Gemini 3 launch and past surges; the real story is whether the pace of AI math improvement can overcome the high bar set by the leaderboard's current top scores.
📊 Base rate: Historical base rates for AI benchmarks show that top scores on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard have improved by roughly 10-20% annually, making a jump to 1575 from current levels (around 1300-1400) within 18 months a significant outlier.
What's driving it
- • Google's announcement of Gemini 3 in November 2025 (blog.google, Nov 18) signals a major new model that could push math scores higher, but the lack of specific Math Arena score data from that launch leaves uncertainty.
- • The market odds have remained stable at 16% Yes since early 2026, with no clear catalyst from recent headlines (e.g., sports or student math achievements) that directly affect AI model performance on this specific benchmark.
- • Historical precedent from 2024, when Google Gemini surged to No. 1 on general benchmarks but faced questions about benchmark reliability (Venturebeat, Nov 15, 2024), suggests that leaderboard rankings can shift rapidly but may not sustain high math scores.
The case for YES
- • Google's Gemini 3, announced in November 2025, could incorporate advanced math reasoning capabilities that push its Arena Math Score above 1575, especially if it leverages new training techniques or larger datasets.
- • The rapid pace of AI development, as seen with Gemini's unexpected surge to No. 1 in 2024, shows that a single model can leapfrog competitors quickly, making a 1575 target achievable within the timeframe.
- • Other major labs (e.g., OpenAI, Anthropic) may release new models in 2026 that focus on math performance, potentially exceeding the threshold before the deadline.
The case for NO
- • The 1575 score is an extremely high bar, likely requiring near-perfect performance on math tasks, and no current model has demonstrated such capability; the leaderboard's top scores are well below that level as of mid-2026.
- • Historical improvements on the Math Arena leaderboard have been incremental, and a jump of over 100 points in 18 months is unprecedented, making a 'No' outcome more probable based on past trends.
- • The resolution source (arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control) is a specific, style-controlled subset that may not reflect general model improvements, and no recent headlines indicate any model has approached 1575 on that exact metric.
What to watch
- • Release of a new flagship model from OpenAI or Anthropic in Q3 2026 (e.g., GPT-5 or Claude 4) with published Math Arena scores; if scores approach 1500, odds would shift toward Yes.
- • Google's next major update or benchmark reveal for Gemini 3, expected around mid-2026; a score above 1500 would increase Yes probability, while a score below 1400 would reinforce No.
- • Any independent verification or leak of a model achieving a Math Arena score near 1575 on the specific leaderboard tab; such news would likely spike Yes odds above 50%.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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