Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
🗂 Part of event: Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 17% chance — unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 17% right now.
Despite recent Houthi attacks and a declared naval blockade on Saudi tankers, the odds of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait being effectively closed (≤10 daily transits) by September 30 have dropped sharply, suggesting the market views the current disruption as insufficient to meet the strict IMF PortWatch metric.
What's driving it
- • The 7-day drop of 7 points reflects growing skepticism that Houthi attacks, even if they cause U-turns (BBC, Jul 22), will reduce the seven-day moving average of transit calls to 10 or below.
- • Houthi announcement of a Saudi naval blockade (Reuters, Jul 21) initially raised alarm, but the subsequent decline in Yes odds indicates traders doubt the blockade will be enforced effectively enough to close the strait.
- • The separate crisis in the Strait of Hormuz (NBC, Jul 21) may be diverting attention, but the market for Bab el-Mandeb is not pricing in a spillover that would reduce traffic to near zero.
The case for YES
- • The Houthi attack on Saudi oil tankers (Institute for Energy Research, Jul 24) directly threatens the commercial shipping that uses the Bab el-Mandeb, potentially forcing a mass withdrawal.
- • If the Houthis extend their naval blockade to all shipping, not just Saudi, the strait could become effectively impassable, triggering a rapid drop in transit calls.
- • The collapse of Strait of Hormuz peace talks (Crypto Briefing, Jul 23) suggests broader regional escalation, which could increase Houthi freedom to disrupt the Bab el-Mandeb.
The case for NO
- • The market has already seen the Houthi threat materialize (attacks, blockade threat) yet the odds have fallen, indicating that traders believe the current response (U-turns) is not enough to meet the ≤10 threshold.
- • The IMF PortWatch data likely still shows many transits; the 7-day moving average has not yet reached the critical level, and the market expects it will stay above 10.
- • The Houthi focus on the Strait of Hormuz (NBC, Jul 21) may mean the Bab el-Mandeb remains a secondary front, with less sustained disruption.
What to watch
- • Any IMF PortWatch publication showing a sharp weekly decline in transit calls (likely direction: Yes if below 10, else No).
- • Announcement of a multinational naval escort or coalition to protect shipping in the Red Sea (likely direction: No, as it would restore safe passage).
- • Further escalation in the US-Iran war context (Reuters, Jul 21) that expands Houthi capabilities or targets (likely direction: Yes).
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
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