Will Napheesa Collier have the highest points per game in the WNBA 2026 regular season?
🗂 Part of event: WNBA: Points Per Game Leader →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 1% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 1% right now.
Napheesa Collier's prolonged injury absence has nearly eliminated her chances of winning the WNBA scoring title, with the market pricing a 1% probability despite her elite scoring pedigree.
What's driving it
- • Collier has missed multiple games due to injury and remains out as of July 18 (Yahoo Sports, Jul 17), directly reducing her games played and potential total points.
- • The Yes probability dropped 1 point in the past week, reflecting worsening outlook as Collier continues to miss games (7d -1pts movement).
- • Headlines emphasize her 'itch for return' (Pioneer Press, Jul 18) but no firm return date, signaling uncertainty around her ability to play enough games to qualify for the PPG leaderboard.
The case for YES
- • Collier is a proven elite scorer, averaging 20.0 PPG in 2024 and near her career peak, so if she returns soon and plays most remaining games, she could still rank high in PPG.
- • Reports indicate Collier is nearing return (Just Women's Sports, Jul 16), which could allow her to accumulate enough games to meet the WNBA's minimum qualification threshold for the scoring title.
- • The WNBA season has roughly 15-20 games remaining (depending on schedule), leaving theoretical room for Collier to post high scoring averages if she returns immediately.
The case for NO
- • Collier has already missed a significant portion of the season; even with a quick return, she will likely fall short of the required number of games to qualify for official WNBA leaderboards.
- • Other players like A'ja Wilson or Jewell Loyd are playing full seasons and already have high PPG averages, making it extremely difficult for Collier to catch up even if she returns.
- • The market's 99% No price reflects near-certainty that Collier's injury-disrupted season prevents her from leading the league in scoring, consistent with the lack of positive news.
What to watch
- • Collier's actual return to game action: a clearance to play or appearance in a game would slightly increase Yes odds as it proves she is healthy and accumulating points.
- • Official WNBA injury report updates showing Collier as 'available' or 'probable' for upcoming games (e.g., next Lynx game) would signal her return.
- • End of regular season (mid-September 2026): final standings and PPG leaderboards lock in the outcome, likely confirming the No resolution if Collier hasn't closed the gap.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve according to the player that finishes the 2026 WNBA regular season with the highest points per game average of any qualified player. In the event of a tie for the highest points per game average, this market will resolve in favor of the player who appeared in the greater number of games. If the tied players also played the same number of games, the market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. Qualification for inclusion in official WNBA leaderboards (such as minimum games or statistical thresholds) will be determined according to WNBA rules and applied exactly as reflected in the official leaderboard. If the 2026 WNBA regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if an official leader has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source will be the WNBA (https://stats.wnba.com/players/traditional/).
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Polymarket ↗Related markets
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