Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in July?
🗂 Part of event: What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in July 2026? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 1% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 1% right now.
The market is pricing a near-zero chance of WTI hitting $120 in July because, with only 25 days left in the month, the current price is far below that level and recent de-escalation between Iran and Israel has reduced the immediate risk of a supply shock that could cause such a spike.
What's driving it
- • The Iran-Israel halt in attacks (Reuters, Jun 8) lowered the probability of a sudden supply disruption that would push prices to $120.
- • Record US crude exports in May (Reuters, Jun 1) and Venezuela's seven-year high exports (OilPrice.com, Jun 15) are increasing global supply, countering tightness from the Strait of Hormuz closure.
- • The Strait of Hormuz closure is expected to last months (CNBC, May 26), but the market appears to have already priced in that disruption without pushing WTI near $120.
- • No clear catalyst has emerged in the first six days of July to suggest a rapid price surge to $120.
The case for YES
- • A sudden resumption of hostilities between Iran and Israel could disrupt oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, potentially causing a price spike to $120.
- • If the Strait of Hormuz closure extends longer than expected and combines with other supply outages, the cumulative effect could push WTI to $120 within a single trading session.
- • A major unplanned outage at a key production facility or refinery could trigger a panic bid that briefly lifts the 1-minute candle high to $120.
The case for NO
- • With only 25 days left in July and WTI likely trading well below $100, a move to $120 would require an unprecedented daily gain of over 20%, which is extremely unlikely given current supply and demand dynamics.
- • The Iran-Israel halt (Reuters, Jun 8) reduces the immediate risk of a supply shock, and record US and Venezuelan exports (Reuters, Jun 1; OilPrice.com, Jun 15) are providing alternative supply.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of July 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract's last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). Per CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract's last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day). For example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
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