GOLD Price: Pump to $4.900 or Dump to $3.700?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: $3700 at about a 65% chance — likely.
Data from Myriad’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Resolved on-chain per the rules written into each market (stablecoin-settled). On-chain settlement is transparent but, like any market, only as good as the rules it was written with.
Resolution criteria
### **Market Details:** - **Market Close:** This market will only be closed once a resolution is achieved. - **Resolution Deadline:** The resolution will be determined as soon as an outcome is reached. - **Pump Target:** $4,900.000 - **Dump Target**: $3,700.000 ### **Resolution Criteria:** - The market resolves based on which condition is met first: - **“$4900”** if the Gold (USD/t.oz) price on Trading Economics reaches or exceeds the Pump Target. - **“$3700”** if the Gold (USD/t.oz) price on Trading Economics drops to equal or below the Dump Target. ### **Resolution Details:** - The Trading Economics closing price of Gold (USD/t.oz) for the Resolution Date will be used, specifically: - One-Day view timeframe (“1D”) - Gold (USD/t.oz) price - Only the Gold (USD/t.oz) price reported by Trading Economics will be considered. ### **Cancellation Conditions:** - The resolution source becomes unavailable, unreliable or experiences major changes. - Any circumstance that prevents reliable price tracking at the Resolution Deadline. - Myriad Markets undergoes a change in its contract that demands a cancelation of all active markets, or a similar significant technical change. In the event of cancellation, participants may claim their stakes at the market value of their open positions at the time of cancellation. This could result in a profit or a loss, depending on the price of their outstanding shares.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Myriad ↗Related markets
World’s largest company at the end of 2026
The field is highly concentrated on Nvidia, but the sum of top-three odds exceeding 100% reflects overlapping bets rather than certainty, and the biggest recent shift is the emergence of SpaceX as a speculative contender, as highlighted by Benzinga on June 16, which could fragment the race if its valuation narrative gains traction.
7 outcomes
Next target for the US interest rate (July)
Despite a 76% probability of holding rates steady, the 22% chance of a hike reflects lingering global tightening pressures, with South Korea's rate rise (Reuters, Jul 14) and stubborn UK inflation (BBC, Jul 22) providing the main counterweight to cooling inflation prints from Japan and Mexico (Reuters, Jul 23).
4 outcomes
Number of FOMC meetings with FED interest rate cuts in the US in 2026
The market is heavily concentrated on zero cuts (72%), reflecting a clear consensus that the Fed under new Chair Warsh will hold rates steady through 2026. The recent Fed minutes (Jul 8) revealing 'inflation concerns grew' and a 'family fight' over rates have solidified the no-cut view, pushing the one-cut option below 25%.
7 outcomes
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
The field is extremely concentrated on a single outcome—zero rate cuts in 2026—at 85%, with the only other candidate (11 cuts) negligible. The single biggest recent shift is the strengthening of the zero-cut case following Fed Chair Warsh's statement on July 23 signaling no immediate rate cuts, reinforcing the hawkish stance from the July 21 Reuters poll that highlighted high chances of a hike.
2 outcomes