Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?
🗂 Part of event: What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in July 2026? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.
Despite a sharp rally to $90 driven by Iran and Red Sea tensions, the market sees virtually no chance of WTI hitting $110 in July because the target is $20 above current prices with only a week left in the month, and even a major escalation would need an unprecedented spike.
📊 Base rate: Since 2000, WTI crude oil has only briefly exceeded $110 during the 2008 financial crisis and the 2022 Russia-Ukraine shock, making such a move in any given month extremely rare (less than 2% of months).
What's driving it
- • WTI crude oil hit $90 on July 23, the first time in six weeks, but that is still $20 below the $110 target, and the odds have dropped 4 points in the past week as time runs out (investingLive, Jul 23).
- • Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and Red Sea shipping disruptions have pushed oil to six-week highs, but the market prices that these factors are insufficient to drive a further $20 surge in the remaining days of July (HousingWire, Jul 23; Deccan Herald, Jul 23).
- • The 24-hour decline of 3 points reflects that even with the rally, the probability of reaching $110 is fading as the month-end approaches and no new catalyst has emerged to justify a parabolic move.
The case for YES
- • A sudden, severe disruption to Middle East oil supply—such as a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz or a direct U.S.-Iran military clash—could trigger a panic spike that briefly pushes WTI above $110 in a single 1-minute candle.
- • Historical precedent shows that geopolitical shocks can produce intraday moves of 10-15% in crude, and from $90 a 22% jump would be needed, which is extreme but not impossible in a crisis scenario.
- • The resolution rule only requires a 1-minute candle high, so a flash spike from a false alarm or algorithmic overreaction could technically resolve Yes even if prices quickly retreat.
The case for NO
- • With WTI at $90 on July 23 and only about 7 trading days left in July, a sustained rally to $110 would require a daily gain of roughly $3 per day, far exceeding recent volatility even amid elevated tensions.
- • The current rally is already priced in, and the market has consistently moved odds lower (down 4 points in a week) as each day passes without a move toward the target, reflecting a strong consensus that $110 is out of reach.
- • Even the most bullish scenarios from the Iran/Red Sea conflict have only pushed oil to six-week highs, not to levels that suggest a $20 breakout, and no headline indicates an imminent supply shock of that magnitude.
What to watch
- • Any official announcement of a U.S. military strike on Iranian facilities or a confirmed closure of the Strait of Hormuz would likely spike oil prices sharply, moving odds toward Yes (but still unlikely to reach $110).
- • Release of weekly U.S. crude inventory data (scheduled for July 29) showing a massive draw could add bullish momentum, but would need to be extraordinary to justify a $110 target.
- • Diplomatic de-escalation or a ceasefire in the Red Sea region would reduce risk premiums, pushing odds further toward No as the rally fades.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of July 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract's last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). Per CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract's last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day). For example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
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