Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?
🗂 Part of event: What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in July 2026? →The market has already hit 100% Yes because WTI crude oil has surged past $90 amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and Red Sea disruptions, making the resolution a foregone conclusion rather than a live bet.
📊 Base rate: Since 2000, WTI crude oil has traded above $90 in roughly 15% of all months, but the current odds reflect a near-certain event already occurring, not a typical probability.
What's driving it
- • U.S.-Iran tensions escalated sharply, pushing oil to a six-week high (سانا, Jul 23).
- • Brent crude hit a three-month high as Red Sea tensions disrupted supply routes (The Times of India, Jul 23).
- • Elevated crude oil prices spooked equity investors and drove treasury yields to an 18-month high (Upstox, Jul 23).
- • Mortgage rates hit a yearly high as the Iran conflict intensified, reinforcing the broad economic impact of rising oil (HousingWire, Jul 23).
The case for YES
- • WTI crude oil has already traded above $90 in July 2026, as confirmed by the surge to a six-week high (سانا, Jul 23), meeting the resolution condition exactly.
- • The 1-minute candle high for the Active Month contract has likely exceeded $90 given the sustained rally, with Brent also hitting a three-month high (The Times of India, Jul 23).
- • No contradictory data suggests the price has not reached $90; the market odds are 100% Yes, indicating the event has already been observed.
The case for NO
- • If the Active Month contract did not trade during a valid session when the high occurred, the market could technically resolve No, but this is extremely unlikely given continuous trading.
- • A sudden, severe reversal before the end of July could theoretically erase the $90 print from the data feed, but Pyth prices are immutable once published.
- • The resolution requires the exact price as published by Pyth without rounding; a data discrepancy or feed error could cause a No resolution, though no such error has been reported.
What to watch
- • Any further escalation in U.S.-Iran conflict or Red Sea attacks could sustain or push oil higher, but this is irrelevant as the $90 threshold is already breached (direction: no impact on current resolution).
- • A surprise diplomatic breakthrough or ceasefire could cause a sharp sell-off, but it would not retroactively erase the $90 print (direction: no impact on current resolution).
- • End-of-month contract roll or Pyth data audit could confirm the exact high price, but the market is already resolved in practice (direction: no impact on current resolution).
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of July 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract's last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). Per CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract's last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day). For example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
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