Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?
🗂 Part of event: What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in July 2026? →WTI crude oil already surged past $80 to $90 on July 23, making the market a foregone conclusion: the trigger event has happened, not a live bet.
What's driving it
- • WTI crude oil hit $90 on July 23, far above the $80 threshold, directly confirming the event (investingLive, Jul 23).
- • Escalating U.S.-Iran conflict and Red Sea shipping route disruptions pushed oil to six-week highs (Deccan Herald, Jul 23; SANA, Jul 23).
- • Oil's rally to $100 speculation (Brent) and surging dollar and bond yields accompanied the move (The Times of India; investingLive, Jul 23).
The case for YES
- • The event has already occurred: WTI crude oil futures reached $90 during a trading session in July, exceeding the $80 threshold (investingLive, Jul 23).
- • The market uses Pyth prices, and the reported high is well above the trigger; no major reversal or contract specification issue can undo the fact that the price hit $80+.
- • Resolution requires only one 1-minute candle with a high at or above $80, and the $90 price clearly satisfies that.
The case for NO
- • If the reported price was from a different contract month not classified as 'Active Month' by Pyth, the resolution could be No, but the headlines refer to WTI crude oil standard futures.
- • If the price was achieved outside of a trading session (e.g., after-hours) and no session candle captured it, but the headlines indicate active trading.
- • No other realistic scenario: the price has decisively crossed the threshold, making a No resolution extremely unlikely.
What to watch
- • No upcoming catalysts matter because the event has already occurred; any subsequent price movement does not affect the resolution.
- • If a dispute arises over the exact price source or contract month, a manual review could delay resolution, but the current odds reflect certainty.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of July 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract's last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). Per CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract's last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day). For example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
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