Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in July?
🗂 Part of event: What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in July 2026? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 1% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 1% right now.
Despite ongoing geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East and record US crude exports, the market assigns only a 1% chance to WTI hitting $115 in July, suggesting that either the conflict premium is fully priced in or supply disruptions are expected to ease before the month ends.
What's driving it
- • The 99% No odds reflect market skepticism that prices can spike to $115 within the short July timeframe, even after Iran and Israel halted attacks on June 8 (Reuters, Jun 8).
- • Record US crude exports in May due to the Iran war tightening global supplies (Reuters, Jun 1) have not pushed prices to extreme levels, indicating ample supply from other sources.
- • Venezuela's oil exports hitting a seven-year high in June (OilPrice.com, Jun 15) adds to global supply and undermines bullish scenarios for a $115 spike.
The case for YES
- • If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for months as Piper Sandler predicts (CNBC, May 26), a sudden disruption could send WTI above $115 for a brief minute.
- • A renewed escalation between Iran and Israel, breaking the June 8 truce (Reuters, Jun 8), could reignite supply fears and push oil prices sharply higher.
- • The market's low Yes odds (1%) create a high-conviction contrarian bet for a spike event, as even a short-lived price jump to $115 would resolve Yes.
The case for NO
- • The ceasefire between Iran and Israel (Reuters, Jun 8) reduces the immediate risk of supply disruptions, making a rapid spike to $115 unlikely in July.
- • Rising production from Venezuela (OilPrice.com, Jun 15) and record US exports (Reuters, Jun 1) provide supply buffers that cap price surges.
- • The Strait of Hormuz closure, while tight, has not yet caused the kind of panic buying needed to push WTI to $115, and markets may have already priced in the risk.
What to watch
- • Weekly US EIA crude inventory reports in July: if draws are larger than expected, could increase Yes odds (direction: Yes).
- • Any official statement or intelligence about the duration of the Hormuz closure: if extended, likely pushes Yes (direction: Yes).
- • OPEC+ emergency meeting announcements: if they signal output increases, could reduce Yes odds (direction: No).
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of July 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract's last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). Per CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract's last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day). For example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
Related markets
Will Discord’s IPO Closing Market Cap be above $20 Billion?
Yes ≈ 27% chance