Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?
🗂 Part of event: What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in July 2026? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 4% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 4% right now.
The market is pricing a near-zero chance (1% Yes) of WTI hitting $105 in July because the Iran-Israel ceasefire (Reuters, Jun 8) has defused the most immediate supply threat and only a few weeks remain in July, making an improbable price spike without a dramatic new shock.
What's driving it
- • The Iran-Israel ceasefire (Reuters, Jun 8) directly lowered fears of a supply disruption that would send prices above $105.
- • Despite predictions of a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure (CNBC, May 26), no corresponding price surge has materialized as of early July, eroding bullish sentiment.
- • Record US crude exports (Reuters, Jun 1) and rising Venezuelan exports (OilPrice.com, Jun 15) have added supply, capping the upside potential for WTI.
The case for YES
- • A breakdown of the Iran-Israel ceasefire could reignite supply panic and drive a sudden spike above $105, as evidenced by the earlier two-week high when talks stalled (Reuters, Apr 27).
- • The still-closed Strait of Hormuz (CNBC, May 26) could eventually tighten global supply enough to push WTI past the $105 level if other outages compound.
- • The 1% odds imply a small but non-trivial chance that a black-swan event—such as a new military escalation—could trigger a brief intraday minute-candle high above $105 in the remaining weeks of July.
The case for NO
- • The Iran-Israel halt of attacks (Reuters, Jun 8) has removed the single most potent catalyst for a near-term spike to $105, leaving the market without a clear bullish trigger.
- • With only about three weeks left in July and current WTI prices likely well below $105 (the June headlines show modest gains), the historical probability of such a rapid move is extremely low.
- • Additional supply from Venezuela's seven-year export high (OilPrice.com, Jun 15) and record US exports (Reuters, Jun 1) act as a buffer against supply-driven leaps to $105.
What to watch
- • Any renewed military action or diplomatic progress between Iran and Israel in the next two weeks would sharply move odds; escalation points Yes, further detente strengthens No.
- • Weekly US EIA crude inventory reports (next on July 8, 15, 22) could shift price expectations; larger-than-expected draws support Yes, builds support No.
- • An emergency OPEC+ meeting (if called to address supply tightness) could either announce production increases (pushing No) or leave output unchanged (supporting Yes).
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of July 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract's last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). Per CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract's last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day). For example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
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