Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?
🗂 Part of event: What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in July 2026? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 1% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 1% right now.
The market is pricing a near-zero chance of WTI hitting $65 in July 2026 because oil has already recovered from a brief sub-$70 dip in late June and is now being pushed higher by escalating Iran conflict and rising mortgage rates, which signal inflationary pressure rather than demand destruction.
📊 Base rate: Since 2010, WTI crude oil has traded below $65 in July in only 3 of the last 16 years (2014, 2015, 2020), giving a historical prior of roughly 19% for such a low price during this month.
What's driving it
- • Oil prices have rebounded from pre-war levels after a brief sub-$70 dip in late June, with headlines showing oil back to pre-war levels by July 7 (Business Insider, Jul 7) and settling 2% lower on economic worries on July 9 (Reuters, Jul 9), but not reaching $65.
- • Escalating Iran conflict and a yearly high in mortgage rates (HousingWire, Jul 23) are pushing oil prices higher by adding supply risk and inflationary pressure, making a drop to $65 less likely.
- • The 7-day probability decline of 2 points reflects that the brief sub-$70 moment in late June (CNBC, Jun 24) has passed without a repeat, and the market now sees no catalyst for a further 5-dollar drop in the remaining days of July.
The case for YES
- • A sudden de-escalation in the Iran conflict could cause a sharp selloff in oil, as the market has priced in a risk premium that would unwind quickly.
- • Renewed economic recession fears, such as a surprise weak jobs report or a Fed hawkish surprise, could push oil below $65 if demand expectations collapse.
The case for NO
- • Oil has already recovered from a sub-$70 dip in late June and is now above pre-war levels (Business Insider, Jul 7), with no headline suggesting a further 5-dollar decline in the remaining 6 days of July.
- • Escalating Iran conflict and rising mortgage rates (HousingWire, Jul 23) are supportive for oil prices, as supply disruption fears and inflation hedge demand keep a floor under crude.
- • The resolution requires a 1-minute candle high or low at or below $65 during a trading session, and with only 6 days left in July and no clear bearish catalyst, the probability of such an extreme intraday move is very low.
What to watch
- • Any new Iran nuclear talks or ceasefire announcement in the coming days would likely push odds up (Yes direction) as the risk premium deflates.
- • A surprise OPEC+ decision to increase production quotas or a release of strategic petroleum reserves could push odds up (Yes direction) by adding supply.
- • A major economic data release (e.g., US GDP or jobs) showing unexpected weakness would push odds up (Yes direction) by reigniting demand fears.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of July 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract's last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). Per CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract's last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day). For example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
Related markets
Will Discord’s IPO Closing Market Cap be above $20 Billion?
Yes ≈ 27% chance