Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $55 in July?
🗂 Part of event: What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in July 2026? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 0% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 0% right now.
Despite recent headlines about a sharp drop in oil prices to four-month lows due to easing supply fears and resumed Hormuz flows, the odds for WTI hitting $55 in July are only 3%, reflecting that the current floor is well above that level and a further ~12% decline from the four-month low is required.
What's driving it
- • Oil prices hit a four-month low as US-Iran talks eased supply fears and Hormuz flows returned (MSN, Jul 3), which has pulled prices down but not to the $55 threshold.
- • A surge in crude oil production pushed futures to a four-month low (FXEmpire, Jul 2), reinforcing that despite lower prices, the market hasn't breached $55.
- • The release of 150 million barrels of Iranian oil into the market (24/7 Wall St., Jun 29) increased supply but prices remain above $55, indicating a strong floor.
The case for YES
- • If a sudden geopolitical shock (e.g., escalation in Middle East or unexpected global recession) triggers a rapid selloff, a 1-minute candle could briefly dip to $55 even if the session close is higher.
- • Extreme positioning or a flash crash in illiquid futures minutes could push the low to $55 for a single candle.
The case for NO
- • Crude oil is already at a four-month low around $62-63, requiring a further ~12% crash to hit $55—a move not supported by current supply-demand fundamentals given returning Hormuz flows and pre-war price levels (Al Jazeera, Jun 25).
- • The market's resolution requires a 1-minute candle low at or below $55, and the recent supply surge has been absorbed without breaking below $60, suggesting a strong support zone.
- • No clear catalyst in the near term points to a sharp enough decline; even the 150-million-barrel Iranian supply injection (24/7 Wall St., Jun 29) has only pushed prices to four-month lows, not to $55.
What to watch
- • Any US-Iran nuclear deal announcement or escalating tariff news could trigger a further price drop, moving odds up for Yes if it breaks below $58.
- • A surprise OPEC+ production increase decision in early July would likely push prices lower, increasing Yes probability.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of July 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract's last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). Per CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract's last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day). For example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
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