Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $45 in July?
🗂 Part of event: What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in July 2026? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 0% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 0% right now.
Despite a string of bearish headlines pushing oil to four-month lows, the market assigns a 1% chance to a further collapse to $45, reflecting that such a price would require a demand shock or supply glut far beyond the current easing of geopolitical risk and production increases.
What's driving it
- • Oil prices hit a four-month low on July 3 as US-Iran talks eased supply fears and Hormuz flows returned (MSN, Jul 3), but the low is still far above $45, keeping the 'No' probability near 100%.
- • Production surges and the release of 150 million barrels of Iranian oil have weighed on prices (FXEmpire, Jun 26; 24/7 Wall St., Jun 29), yet these supply additions are incremental and not enough to drive WTI below $45 without a demand collapse.
- • The market's extreme 99% 'No' odds reflect that no headline or data point has suggested a plausible path to $45 in July, and the resolution rule requires a 1-minute candle touch, which is even less likely given current volatility.
The case for YES
- • A sudden global recession or financial crisis in July could crater demand and push WTI below $45, though no such event is indicated in recent headlines.
- • If OPEC+ unexpectedly abandons production discipline and floods the market, combined with the already rising Iranian supply, prices could overshoot to $45, but this scenario is not supported by current news.
- • A technical flash crash or liquidity event in the futures market could briefly print a $45 low on a 1-minute candle, but such events are rare and unpredictable.
The case for NO
- • Current WTI prices are at four-month lows but still in the $60–70 range (implied by 'pre-war levels' and 'four-month low' headlines), requiring a drop of over 30% to hit $45, which is inconsistent with stable demand and OPEC+ vigilance.
- • The return of Hormuz flows and Iranian oil are already priced in, and further supply increases are limited by infrastructure and sanctions; no headline suggests an imminent supply tsunami that would crash prices to $45.
- • The resolution rule requires a touch during a trading session, and with odds at 1%, the market consensus is that even a temporary spike to $45 is virtually impossible given current fundamentals.
What to watch
- • OPEC+ monthly meeting (likely mid-July): if the group announces deeper cuts to counter the supply glut, it would reinforce 'No'; if they unexpectedly increase output, it could slightly raise 'Yes' odds but still far from 50%.
- • US weekly crude inventory reports (every Wednesday in July): a massive build far above expectations could pressure prices, but a drop to $45 would require a sustained multi-million barrel surplus not seen in recent data.
- • Iran nuclear deal progress or new sanctions waivers: further easing of restrictions could add more supply, but the market has already absorbed the initial wave; a surprise deal that unlocks even more barrels could modestly increase 'Yes' probability.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of July 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract's last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). Per CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract's last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day). For example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
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