Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in July?
🗂 Part of event: What price will Ethereum hit in July? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 1% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 1% right now.
Despite geopolitical jitters and whale selling, the market assigns only a 24% chance of Ethereum hitting $1,500 in July, implying that the $1,600 support level is seen as resilient and the remaining three weeks insufficient for a 6%+ drop.
📊 Base rate: Omitted (cannot ground a defensible historical prior for Ethereum touching $1,500 in a given month without inventing a statistic).
What's driving it
- • Geopolitical risk from US strikes on Iran caused a broad crypto dip on July 8, but Ethereum did not breach $1,500 (Yahoo Finance, Jul 8).
- • Whales have been actively buying the dip around $1,600, providing a floor that has held despite weak price action and ETF outflows (Cryptonews.net, Jun 24-25).
- • Long-dormant Ethereum OG wallets sold after 8 years, adding selling pressure but not enough to push price to the $1,500 target (CryptoRank, Jun 27).
The case for YES
- • Escalation of the Iran conflict could trigger a risk-off sell-off that breaks through the $1,600 support level.
- • Continued ETF outflows and weak price action, combined with potential whale profit-taking, could drive Ethereum lower.
- • The KuCoin headline (Jul 7) suggests a narrative that a dip below $1,500 is anticipated, which could become self-fulfilling if selling accelerates.
The case for NO
- • Whale buying and price stability at $1,600 despite negative news indicate strong support that is likely to hold.
- • The market has already absorbed selling from OG wallets and a geopolitical shock without breaking $1,500, suggesting resilience.
- • With only three weeks left in July, a drop of over $100 (6%+) from current levels is unlikely given recent low volatility and the absence of a clear catalyst for such a move.
What to watch
- • Upcoming US CPI data and Federal Reserve decision (mid-July) could strengthen the dollar and pressure crypto, increasing the chance of a dip (direction: Yes).
- • Any further escalation in the Iran conflict or new geopolitical shocks could trigger a broad risk-off move (direction: Yes).
- • Positive Ethereum ETF inflow data or regulatory clarity could boost sentiment and push price away from $1,500 (direction: No).
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT Low prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Polymarket ↗Related markets
Which price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
The field is overwhelmingly concentrated on Bitcoin reaching $65k and $75k in 2026, both at 99%, reflecting the current price near $64k and a strong bullish consensus. The single biggest recent shift is the surge in odds for $65k to near certainty as Bitcoin approached that level, confirmed by the July 20 headline 'Bitcoin price hits $65K wall'.
7 outcomes
ETH Up or Down - Daily
The market is pricing an 84% chance of an ETH daily up move, but the recent headlines paint a picture of extreme bearish sentiment and technical weakness, suggesting the odds may be overconfident in a short-term bounce.
Yes ≈ 85% chance
Which price will Bitcoin hit in July?
The market is effectively settled: with Bitcoin trading above $65,000 as of July 26 and only five days left in July, the 98% odds for $65,000 reflect a near-certain outcome rather than a speculative bet, leaving no room for the other two price levels.
3 outcomes
Which price will Solana hit in July?
The $70 target leads at 30%, but the field is far from decided; the single largest recent shift appears to be the mixed impact of a record stablecoin market cap and a $1.65M exploit on the same day (July 20), which may have widened the probability spread.
3 outcomes
What will be the price of Bitcoin at the end of 2026?
The field is heavily concentrated in the $60k–$90k range (81% combined), with the leading $60k–$75k bracket at 53% — a bet that Bitcoin's bear market bottoms and recovers modestly by year-end, but does not break out above $105k (only 6%). The biggest recent shift is the 53% leader absorbing share from the $75k–$90k and below-$60k bins, likely driven by the July 18 report of massive call spreads targeting $72,000 around the Fed meeting (CoinDesk, Jul 18) and the July 24 analysis suggesting the bear market may end before the four-year cycle predicts (Bitcoin Foundation, Jul 24).
5 outcomes
BTC next move: Pump to $84K or Dump to $55K?
The market is binary and highly concentrated with the $55K dump at 65% odds, but the lack of recent headlines suggests the odds are driven by persistent sentiment rather than a specific catalyst, leaving the $84K pump as a viable tail risk.
2 outcomes