Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in July?
🗂 Part of event: What price will Ethereum hit in July? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 0% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 0% right now.
The market is pricing a near-zero chance of Ethereum crashing 19% to $1,300 in July, despite recent geopolitical risk and whale selling, because price has held above $1,500 and whales are buying the dip.
What's driving it
- • Whales continue buying Ethereum dips near $1,600, signaling a strong support level (Cryptonews.net, Jun 24 & Jun 25).
- • Even after long-term holders sold off after 8 years, price stayed above $1,500, showing market absorption (CryptoRank, Jun 27).
- • Geopolitical shock from US strikes on Iran (Jul 8) only caused a shallow dip, failing to push ETH near $1,300 (Yahoo Finance, Jul 8).
The case for YES
- • A sudden escalation of the Iran conflict could trigger broad crypto sell-off, as the Jul 8 dip showed market sensitivity (Yahoo Finance, Jul 8).
- • If ETF outflows accelerate (as seen in Jun), combined with summer low liquidity, ETH could break support and slide to $1,300 (Cryptonews.net, Jun 24).
- • The 'dip below $1.5K is dead' sentiment (KuCoin, Jul 7) might become self-fulfilling prophecy if panic selling triggers stop-losses.
The case for NO
- • Whales have been aggressively accumulating at these levels, indicating they expect higher prices (Cryptonews.net, Jun 24 & Jun 25).
- • Ethereum has bounced multiple times from the $1,500-$1,600 zone, making a break below $1,400 unlikely in the remaining 22 days.
- • Historical seasonality suggests July lows often precede a bullish August, reducing the chance of a new low below $1,300.
What to watch
- • Potential US-Iran military escalation (direction: Yes if escalates, No if de-escalates).
- • Weekly Ethereum ETF flow data (direction: Yes on continued outflows, No on inflows).
- • July 31 FOMC rate decision (direction: Yes if hawkish, No if dovish).
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT Low prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Polymarket ↗Related markets
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