Will 100 Thieves make a roster change before September?
🗂 Part of event: Will 100 Thieves make a roster change before September? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 7% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 7% right now.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player joins or leaves 100 Thieves' main VALORANT roster (defined as the players listed with "Active" status in the roster table on 100 Thieves' Liquipedia page: https://liquipedia.net/valorant/100_Thieves) by August 31, 11:59pm ET, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". As of market creation the active starter roster consists of the following five players: Cryocells, Asuna, Bang, Vora, Timotino. Name changes or aliases referring to the same player do not qualify as roster changes. Roster change refers to any official signing, transfer, benching to inactive/reserve, release, retirement, or departure of a player from the active starting lineup. This includes adding new players (transfers, free agent signings, or loans), removing players (to bench/inactive, free agency, or other teams), or any change resulting in a different active roster. Coach and staff changes, and temporary stand-ins/substitutes will not count. A player appearing in the active lineup for matches or events solely as a designated substitute or stand-in for a single event does not count toward a roster change. To qualify, a roster change must be officially confirmed by 100 Thieves or the player involved; leaks, rumors, or unconfirmed reporting do not count until officially confirmed. A qualifying roster change must occur on or before the deadline, and be reflected in the resolution source. Once the change appears in the resolution source, it must remain live for at least 48 continuous hours to be valid. This 48-hour period may finish after the deadline, so long as the change itself occurred on or before the deadline. If the change is reverted or removed before 48 hours have elapsed, the window resets and will not count toward resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be Liquipedia (https://liquipedia.net/valorant/100_Thieves), however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Related markets
3M Open Winner
Jackson Koivun commands an unusually high 54% probability for a PGA Tour event, but the 1-point dip in the last 24 hours hints at shifting money, and recent headlines focus entirely on the British Open victory by Ryan Fox (AP News, Jul 24), offering no clear catalyst for that movement or for Koivun's lead itself.
66 outcomes
Mohamed Salah will join PSG by September 1, 2026
Liverpool are actively blocking a PSG move for Mohamed Salah by pursuing his replacement and even bidding for a PSG target, making a transfer highly unlikely despite persistent rumors.
Yes ≈ 5% chance
Preston Stout (T20) vs OTHER
The field is extremely concentrated on 'OTHER' at 92%, with Preston Stout at just 8%, reflecting that Stout is a niche T20 golfer with no recent PGA Tour headlines, while the 'OTHER' category encompasses the entire PGA Tour field, which has been generating multiple headlines about players like J.T. Poston and Taylor Pendrith making notable shots in recent weeks.
2 outcomes
Kansas City vs Detroit
Despite Detroit's slight lead, Kansas City's recent win and Salvador Perez's franchise home-run record have significantly narrowed the gap, making this a near toss-up.
2 outcomes