Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?
🗂 Part of event: Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 1% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 1% right now.
Despite headlines of Houthi attacks and a blockade on Saudi tankers, the market sees a 0% chance of the Bab el-Mandeb effectively closing by July 31 because the resolution metric—a 7-day moving average of transit calls ≤10—is a lagging indicator that cannot drop that low in the remaining few days given normal traffic of ~70-80 per day.
What's driving it
- • The 7-day moving average smooths out sudden drops; even with Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers (Reuters, Jul 21) and tankers making U-turns (BBC, Jul 22), the average will still reflect higher counts from earlier in the week, making a plunge to ≤10 by July 31 near impossible.
- • The market has fallen 10 points in the last 7 days as traders digested that the Houthi naval blockade announcement (Reuters, Jul 21) has not yet caused a complete halt in shipping, and the Strait of Hormuz crisis (NBC News, Jul 21) is diverting attention rather than directly reducing Bab el-Mandeb traffic to an extreme low.
- • Oil price spikes following collapsed Hormuz peace talks (Crypto Briefing, Jul 23) have not correlated with a sudden drop in Bab el-Mandeb transits, reinforcing the view that the threshold is too aggressive for current conditions.
The case for YES
- • If the Houthi attacks reported on July 24 (The Institute for Energy Research) escalate to a complete blockade enforced by naval assets, all tanker traffic could cease, causing a multi-day zero-transit window that might pull the 7-day moving average below 10 by July 31 if IMF PortWatch updates quickly.
- • The Houthi blockade announcement (Reuters, Jul 21) explicitly threatens a new front in the US-Iran war, and the resulting fear could cause shippers to avoid the strait entirely, as already seen with Kenyan oil supplies at risk (The Eastleigh Voice, Jul 23).
- • The resolution mechanism allows for early settlement if IMF PortWatch publishes a qualifying moving average before the deadline; a sudden data release showing a sharp drop could resolve Yes even if the average later recovers.
The case for NO
- • The 7-day moving average threshold of ≤10 is extremely low—normal daily transits are around 70-80—and the 7-day window means any reduction must be sustained for nearly a week; with only 6 days left from the latest headlines, a drop to that level is mathematically implausible even if all traffic stopped immediately.
- • No headline reports a complete cessation of shipping; the BBC reports tankers making U-turns (Jul 22), which indicates diversion rather than zero traffic, and the moving average will still include vessels that transited earlier in the period.
- • The 7-day movement of -10 points on the Yes side shows that market participants have already priced in the Houthi escalation and concluded it is insufficient to meet the resolution condition by the deadline.
What to watch
- • Publication of IMF PortWatch data for any date between now and July 31—if a 7-day moving average shows a steep decline (e.g., below 20), Yes odds would rise; if it remains far above 10, No odds solidify.
- • A new report of a military engagement that forces the strait to close completely, such as a Houthi attack on a major naval vessel or a confirmed sinking that blocks the channel (from Houthis Attack Saudi Oil Tankers, Jul 24)—would move Yes up.
- • The expiration of the market on July 31—if no qualifying data is published by then, the market will wait up to 14 days for data, but the date itself is a catalyst for resolution towards No.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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