Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?
🗂 Part of event: What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in July 2026? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 10% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 10% right now.
The market sees a 12% chance of WTI hitting $75 in July, but the real story is that oil has already dipped below $70 in late June, and the odds collapsed 14 points in 24 hours as traders price in a return of Middle Eastern supply that makes a rebound to $75 unlikely this month.
📊 Base rate: Since 2020, WTI crude oil has experienced intra-month drops of at least $5 from a given price level in roughly 30% of months, but a recovery to a specific higher target within the same month occurs less than 15% of the time, making the current 12% odds slightly below that historical prior.
What's driving it
- • Oil prices settled 2% lower on July 9 as economic worries outweighed supply risks (Reuters, Jul 9), reinforcing a bearish sentiment that keeps prices far from $75.
- • Oil returned to pre-war levels by early July (Business Insider, Jul 7), suggesting the supply shock that once supported prices has fully unwound.
- • U.S. crude briefly dipped below $70 on June 24 as tankers transited the Strait of Hormuz (CNBC, Jun 24), showing that a key geopolitical risk has eased and prices have already tested lower levels.
- • The 14-point drop in Yes odds over 24 hours likely reflects traders reacting to the sustained low prices and the absence of any bullish catalyst to push WTI back above $75.
- • yes
The case for YES
- • If a sudden supply disruption—such as a new conflict in the Middle East or a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico—occurs in the remaining days of July, it could spike WTI above $75 in a single 1-minute candle.
- • The resolution only requires a single 1-minute candle to hit $75, so a brief intraday spike from a short squeeze or unexpected inventory draw could trigger a Yes even if the broader trend is bearish.
- • The market's low 12% odds mean that a contrarian bet could pay off if a catalyst emerges that the current consensus is ignoring, such as a rapid demand rebound from economic stimulus.
The case for NO
- • Oil prices are already below $70 as of late June (CNBC, Jun 24) and have stayed near pre-war levels (Al Jazeera, Jun 25), making a $5+ rally to $75 within July a steep climb against the prevailing downtrend.
- • The return of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz (Reuters, Jun 26) has increased global supply, and economic worries continue to weigh on demand (Reuters, Jul 9), both of which suppress prices.
- • With only about 9 days left in July and no major bullish headlines, the market is pricing in a 89% chance that WTI will not reach $75, reflecting the strong momentum of the recent sell-off.
What to watch
- • July 26-27: Federal Reserve interest rate decision—a hawkish hold could strengthen the dollar and push oil lower (No), while a surprise cut could boost demand expectations and lift prices (Yes).
- • July 31: EIA weekly petroleum status report—a larger-than-expected draw in crude inventories could briefly spike WTI toward $75 (Yes), while a build would reinforce the downtrend (No).
- • Any unplanned outage at a major refinery or pipeline in the Gulf of Mexico in the next week could cause a sudden price jump (Yes), but no such event is currently anticipated.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of July 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract's last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). Per CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract's last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day). For example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
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