Will Rico Hoey finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 3M Open?
🗂 Part of event: PGA Tour: 3M Open Top 5 →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 20% chance — unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 20% right now.
Rico Hoey's 9% chance reflects a middling tournament start (67-? rounds) overshadowed by a rival's historic 59 and a market doubting he can leapfrog a deep leaderboard into the top 5.
📊 Base rate: PGA Tour long shots (players with pre-tournament odds above +3000) finish top-5 roughly 5-10% of the time, so the 9% line is slightly above the historical base rate for such an underdog.
What's driving it
- • Hoey's solid-but-unspectacular second-round 67 kept him in the mix but didn't vault him into contention (Daily Tribune, Jul 24).
- • A rival's record-breaking 59 (Kim) has shifted attention and market confidence toward other contenders, dimming Hoey's relative outlook (Philstar.com, Jul 25).
- • The emergence of head-to-head prediction markets (e.g., Gordon vs Hoey) signals that bettors are now comparing Hoey against specific peers rather than betting on him outright, reinforcing his underdog status (Robinhood, Jul 25).
The case for YES
- • Hoey's rounds of 67 show he is within striking distance of the top 5, and a strong final round could still move him up the leaderboard.
- • The tournament has not ended yet, and volatility in scoring (as seen by Kim's 59) means a single hot round can dramatically improve final position.
The case for NO
- • Hoey currently trails multiple players, and with only one round left, overtaking several competitors to reach the top 5 is a steep mathematical climb.
- • Kim's dominant performance and low score have compressed the leaderboard's top spots, making it harder for any player outside the immediate top tier to break in.
- • The market's heavy 91% No odds reflect that bettors, based on real-time results and head-to-head lines, see Hoey's chances as slim.
What to watch
- • Final-round results (July 26): If Hoey posts a low round (e.g., 65 or better) and climbs into the top 5, the Yes side would spike; if he remains stagnant or drops, odds will collapse to near zero.
- • Official PGA Tour leaderboard updates during the final round: Real-time position changes will immediately shift the market as players finish their rounds.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 5 at the 2026 3M Open tournament, including ties. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If final results are not announced by August 1, 2026 at 8:00PM ET this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the PGA Tour website (https://www.pgatour.com/).
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Polymarket ↗Related markets
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