Will Seamus Power finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 3M Open?
🗂 Part of event: PGA Tour: 3M Open Top 5 →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 28% chance — unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 28% right now.
Despite a sizzling opening 63 that put Seamus Power in early contention at the 3M Open, the market still sees only a 19% chance he finishes top 5, reflecting the difficulty of sustaining that position over four rounds against a deep field.
What's driving it
- • Power's 63 and share of the early clubhouse lead (The Irish Times, Jul 25) drove the Yes probability up 1 point in 24 hours.
- • The market remains skeptical because one strong round does not guarantee a top-5 finish, and Power has historically been inconsistent in maintaining high positions.
The case for YES
- • Power is currently near the lead after round 1, showing elite form with a 63 that included a 6-foot birdie putt (PGA Tour, Jul 25).
- • If he can replicate this scoring over the next three rounds, he has a realistic path to a top-5 finish, especially given the momentum from his early success.
The case for NO
- • One round does not secure a top-5 finish; many players can overtake him over the remaining 54 holes, as seen with Denny McCarthy also making birdies (PGA Tour, Jul 25).
- • Power's career top-5 rate in PGA Tour events is low (roughly 5-10%), making a 19% probability already generous after just one round.
- • The field includes numerous players with stronger recent form and higher world rankings, increasing the competition for the top 5 spots.
What to watch
- • After the second round (July 26), if Power remains in the top 5 or close, the Yes probability will likely rise; if he falls outside the top 20, it will drop sharply.
- • The final round on July 28 will resolve the market; any significant move up or down in the leaderboard during the weekend will directly impact the odds.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 5 at the 2026 3M Open tournament, including ties. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If final results are not announced by August 1, 2026 at 8:00PM ET this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the PGA Tour website (https://www.pgatour.com/).
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Polymarket ↗Related markets
3M Open Winner
Jackson Koivun commands an unusually high 54% probability for a PGA Tour event, but the 1-point dip in the last 24 hours hints at shifting money, and recent headlines focus entirely on the British Open victory by Ryan Fox (AP News, Jul 24), offering no clear catalyst for that movement or for Koivun's lead itself.
66 outcomes
Mohamed Salah will join PSG by September 1, 2026
Liverpool are actively blocking a PSG move for Mohamed Salah by pursuing his replacement and even bidding for a PSG target, making a transfer highly unlikely despite persistent rumors.
Yes ≈ 5% chance
Preston Stout (T20) vs OTHER
The field is extremely concentrated on 'OTHER' at 92%, with Preston Stout at just 8%, reflecting that Stout is a niche T20 golfer with no recent PGA Tour headlines, while the 'OTHER' category encompasses the entire PGA Tour field, which has been generating multiple headlines about players like J.T. Poston and Taylor Pendrith making notable shots in recent weeks.
2 outcomes
Kansas City vs Detroit
Despite Detroit's slight lead, Kansas City's recent win and Salvador Perez's franchise home-run record have significantly narrowed the gap, making this a near toss-up.
2 outcomes