Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?
🗂 Part of event: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 98% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 98% right now.
The market is pricing a near-certain continuation of the ceasefire, but the real story is the sudden 23-point surge in the last 24 hours, which appears driven by a secret Iranian ceasefire proposal revealed on July 21 and a US House vote to limit war powers on July 23, suggesting political and diplomatic momentum rather than a purely military assessment.
📊 Base rate: Ceasefires between state actors in active conflict historically break down within days or weeks; for example, the 2020 US-Taliban ceasefire lasted only about 14 days before violations resumed, making a 97% probability unusually high for a single-day extension.
What's driving it
- • The 24-hour +23-point surge aligns with the July 21 exclusive report that Iran secretly submitted a proposal for a 10-day ceasefire while under intense US strikes (The Jerusalem Post, Jul 21), indicating a diplomatic off-ramp that reduces the chance of immediate Israeli or Iranian military action.
- • The US House vote on July 23 to limit war powers for the first time since the ceasefire breakdown (Al Jazeera, Jul 23) signals US political pressure to de-escalate, which lowers the probability of a US-backed Israeli strike that could break the ceasefire.
- • The July 22 US insistence that Iran 'does not control' the Strait of Hormuz (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Jul 22) suggests the US is downplaying a potential flashpoint, reducing the likelihood of a qualifying military action from either side.
The case for YES
- • Iran's own secret proposal for a 10-day ceasefire (The Jerusalem Post, Jul 21) indicates Tehran is actively seeking to avoid escalation, making a unilateral strike by Iran within the next 24 hours unlikely.
- • The US House vote to limit war powers (Al Jazeera, Jul 23) constrains the US administration's ability to support or initiate military action against Iran, removing a key trigger for an Israeli strike that could break the ceasefire.
- • No recent headlines report any qualifying military action (air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike) between Israel and Iran since the ceasefire began, suggesting both sides are adhering to the terms.
The case for NO
- • The ceasefire is extremely fragile, as evidenced by the prior breakdown that required a secret Iranian proposal (The Jerusalem Post, Jul 21) to restart talks, and a single violation—such as a retaliatory strike for ongoing US strikes—could occur within hours.
- • The 24-hour surge to 97% may reflect overreaction to the diplomatic headlines; a sudden military incident, like an Israeli preemptive strike or an Iranian missile launch, could quickly reverse the odds, as no new military guarantees have been reported.
- • The market's resolution time is only until 11:59 PM IRST on July 26, meaning a single qualifying action—even a minor one—before that deadline would resolve to No, and the high odds may not account for the risk of a last-minute escalation.
What to watch
- • Any report of a new Israeli or Iranian military deployment or air defense alert before July 26 would likely move odds toward No, as it signals preparation for a qualifying strike.
- • A statement from the US or UN confirming the ceasefire extension beyond July 26 would reinforce the Yes case, potentially pushing odds even higher.
- • A public denial or withdrawal of Iran's secret proposal by either government would sharply increase No probability, as it would remove the diplomatic basis for the current calm.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.
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