Bitcoin Up or Down on July 27?
🗂 Part of event: Bitcoin Up or Down on July 27? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 52% chance — a coin toss.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 52% right now.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 26 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jul 27 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 26 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jul 27 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Polymarket ↗Related markets
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7 outcomes
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Yes ≈ 25% chance