Trump out as President before 2027?
🗂 Part of event: Trump out as President before 2027? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 7% chance — very unlikely.
Across venues
· updated 9mPredictPal ConsensusThe same question trades on 3 venues. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 7% right now.
Despite intense political battles over Iran and internal GOP friction, the market sees virtually no chance of Trump leaving office early because no removal mechanism—impeachment, 25th Amendment, or resignation—has been seriously activated, and the historical precedent is nearly zero.
📊 Base rate: Since 1789, only one U.S. president has resigned (Nixon) and none have been removed via impeachment, making the historical probability of a president leaving office involuntarily before term end well under 1%.
What's driving it
- • Congressional war-powers votes (House passes restraint on Iran, Senate fails) show opposition but no removal threat (The Washington Post, Jul 23).
- • Trump's reported impatience with Senate Majority Leader Thune signals party friction but not a move to oust him (Politico, Jul 23).
- • No recent headlines mention impeachment, 25th Amendment invocation, or resignation, so the market sees no active removal process.
The case for YES
- • If Trump orders a massive attack on Iran without congressional approval (Axios, Jul 23), it could trigger impeachment for violating the War Powers Resolution.
- • The House has already shown willingness to restrain Trump on Iran, and a major escalation might push some Republicans to support removal.
- • A sudden health or mental fitness crisis could lead to temporary 25th Amendment invocation, though no such event is reported.
The case for NO
- • Republicans control both chambers and have shown no appetite for removing their own president, as seen in the failed Senate war-powers measure (CNBC, Jul 23).
- • No formal impeachment inquiry or 25th Amendment discussion has been initiated, and Trump retains strong support among GOP voters.
- • The market's 93% No reflects the extreme rarity of involuntary presidential departures and the lack of any proximate threat.
What to watch
- • Trump's announced decision on a 'massive attack' on Iran (Axios, Jul 23) – if he orders it, removal risk rises (Yes direction).
- • November 2026 midterm elections – if Democrats win control of Congress, they could launch impeachment proceedings (Yes direction).
- • Any public disclosure of a Cabinet-level 25th Amendment discussion or a resignation rumor would immediately spike Yes odds.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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