Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?
🗂 Part of event: Who will announce Presidential run before 2027? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 11% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 11% right now.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Polymarket ↗Related markets
Will Trump announce he is running for President in the 2028 election?
The market heavily discounts a Trump 2028 announcement despite his continued political activity, reflecting his age, legal risks, and the party's gradual shift toward newer contenders.
Yes ≈ 64% chance
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
128 outcomes