New pandemic in 2026?
🗂 Part of event: New pandemic in 2026? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 7% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 7% right now.
Despite a 94% No price, the market is not pricing in the real risk of a WHO pandemic declaration from a non-COVID pathogen like Ebola or Legionnaires', which are currently active and escalating.
📊 Base rate: Since 2009, the WHO has declared a pandemic only twice (H1N1 in 2009, COVID-19 in 2020), giving a historical base rate of roughly 12% per year, meaning the current 7% Yes is slightly below that prior.
What's driving it
- • Ebola is moving faster than the response, according to the Africa CDC head (The New Humanitarian, Jul 9), raising the chance of a WHO emergency declaration that could escalate to pandemic status.
- • A Legionnaires' outbreak in New York is linked to climate threats (The Guardian, Jul 9), but Legionnaires' is not typically declared a pandemic by WHO, so this headline likely reinforces the No case.
- • An Oxford professor's warning that 'the next pandemic is not a matter of if, but when' (Euronews, Jul 8) keeps long-term concern alive but does not change the 2026-specific odds.
The case for YES
- • Ebola outbreaks in DR Congo and elsewhere are accelerating, and the Africa CDC warns the response is lagging (The New Humanitarian, Jul 9), which could lead to a WHO pandemic declaration if it spreads across multiple regions.
- • The WHO has already declared the DR Congo Ebola outbreak a 'public health emergency of international concern' (BBC, Jul 1), and a further escalation to pandemic is possible if containment fails.
- • Climate change is increasing the risk of new disease outbreaks, as seen with Legionnaires' in New York (The Guardian, Jul 9), and a novel pathogen could emerge and meet WHO pandemic criteria.
The case for NO
- • No WHO pandemic has been declared for any disease since COVID-19 in 2020, and the current Ebola and Legionnaires' outbreaks remain localized and have not triggered a pandemic declaration.
- • The WHO's pandemic definition requires global spread, and current outbreaks like Ebola in DR Congo and Legionnaires' in New York are geographically contained (BBC, Jul 1; The Guardian, Jul 9).
- • The market heavily discounts a 2026 pandemic at 94% No, reflecting the low probability of any single disease meeting WHO's strict criteria within the calendar year.
What to watch
- • WHO emergency committee meeting on Ebola in DR Congo (likely within weeks) — if it declares a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, it could increase Yes odds.
- • Any new WHO announcement of a disease spreading to a second continent with sustained transmission — would likely push Yes odds up.
- • End-of-year WHO summary report (December 2026) — if no pandemic declared by then, No odds will solidify further.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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