MLB: 2026 NL Cy Young Winner
🗂 Part of event: MLB: 2026 NL Cy Young Winner →Tap a candidate to show/hide its line · double-tap to isolate
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Jacob Misiorowski at about a 75% chance — likely.
The field is heavily concentrated on Jacob Misiorowski (63%), but the lack of recent headlines about his performance suggests his lead is built on early-season dominance rather than a single recent catalyst. The top three sum 82%, indicating a narrow race, but the presence of 69 candidates leaves room for a late surge if a contender falters.
What's driving it
- • Brandon Woodruff's new injury (FOX Sports, Jul 9) likely reduced competition within the Brewers, boosting Misiorowski's odds to 63%.
- • Justin Verlander's retirement announcement (CBS Sports, Jul 8) does not directly affect the NL Cy Young race but may signal a generational shift in pitcher awards.
Why the front-runners lead
- • Jacob Misiorowski leads at 63% likely due to a dominant first half, though no recent headline confirms this.
- • Cristopher Sanchez and Zack Wheeler, both at 10%, are established pitchers with strong track records, keeping them in contention despite trailing far behind.
- • The top three sum 82%, showing that the market sees a small group of contenders.
Why it's still open
- • Chris Sale (6%) and Yoshinobu Yamamoto (5%) are within striking distance if they have strong second halves, but they lack recent headlines to suggest a surge.
- • The large number of candidates (69) means a dark horse could emerge, but the top-heavy odds suggest the market sees a clear favorite.
- • Brandon Woodruff, despite being at 0%, could re-enter the race if his injury proves minor, but the headline (FOX Sports, Jul 9) suggests a serious issue.
What to watch
- • The MLB trade deadline (July 31) could shift the balance if a contender acquires a top pitcher, potentially boosting a candidate's win total.
- • The remainder of the season, with key head-to-head matchups, will determine the final stats, especially for pitchers like Sanchez and Wheeler who are close in odds.
- • Brandon Woodruff's injury status (FOX Sports, Jul 9) could further impact the Brewers' rotation and Misiorowski's workload, either solidifying or weakening his lead.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
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Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 National League Cy Young Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Polymarket ↗Related markets
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