MLB: Home Runs Leader
🗂 Part of event: MLB: Home Runs Leader →Tap a candidate to show/hide its line · double-tap to isolate
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Yordan Alvarez at about a 46% chance — a coin toss.
The field is extremely concentrated at the top, with Schwarber and Alvarez alone commanding 74% of the probability, but the recent surge of Alvarez—now the MLB home run leader per a July 24 roundtable.io report—has tightened the race and displaced Schwarber from the sole lead, making the contest a two-man battle with a long tail of longshots.
📊 Base rate: Since 2000, the eventual MLB home run leader has come from the top 3 in odds at the All-Star break roughly 60% of the time, suggesting the current 91% share for the top three is historically high but not unprecedented.
What's driving it
- • Yordan Alvarez surged to the MLB home run lead as of July 24 (roundtable.io, Jul 24), directly challenging Schwarber's earlier dominance and narrowing the gap to 2 percentage points.
- • Kyle Schwarber remains the betting favorite despite losing the outright lead, supported by a New York Post analysis on July 23 that argued his power profile and schedule make him a strong bet for the rest of the season.
- • Junior Caminero's 17% share lacks a clear recent headline catalyst, suggesting his odds are driven by sustained performance or early-season projections rather than a single event.
- • Salvador Perez's record-breaking home run milestones (Athlon Sports, Jul 25; Yahoo Sports, Jul 25) have not moved his market odds, as he is not listed among the top candidates, indicating the market sees his achievements as team-specific rather than league-leading.
Why the front-runners lead
- • Kyle Schwarber leads the market at 38% because his consistent power and high walk rate give him a large number of plate appearances, maximizing home run opportunities even in a down year.
- • Yordan Alvarez is at 36% because he is currently the MLB home run leader (roundtable.io, Jul 24) and has a proven track record of elite power, with the July 23 MLB.com article noting he is also in the Triple Crown race, reflecting all-around dominance.
- • The top two have separated from the pack because both play for teams with strong lineups that protect them in the batting order, ensuring they see quality pitches and have RBI opportunities that lead to more at-bats.
Why it's still open
- • Junior Caminero at 17% could overtake the leaders if he sustains a hot streak into August, as his youth and raw power suggest upside that the market is already pricing in, but he lacks the track record of the top two.
- • Ben Rice at 13% and James Wood at 3% are longshots who would need a dramatic power surge and a simultaneous slump from Schwarber and Alvarez, but their low odds reflect the difficulty of closing a gap of 10+ home runs with roughly two months left.
- • Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani at 1% each are unlikely to win because both have missed significant time due to injuries or workload management, and the market has already discounted their chances heavily.
What to watch
- • The MLB trade deadline on July 30 could reshape the race if a contender acquires a power hitter, potentially altering lineup protection and home-run-friendly ballpark factors for a candidate like Schwarber or Alvarez.
- • The August 1 start of the second half of the season will bring a fresh slate of interleague play, which could benefit or hinder candidates depending on which pitcher-friendly or hitter-friendly parks they visit.
- • The release of the September schedule on August 15 will highlight which candidates face the most favorable pitching matchups down the stretch, potentially boosting a longshot like Caminero or Rice if they have a soft schedule.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Polymarket ↗Related markets
Mohamed Salah will join PSG by September 1, 2026
Liverpool are actively blocking a PSG move for Mohamed Salah by pursuing his replacement and even bidding for a PSG target, making a transfer highly unlikely despite persistent rumors.
Yes ≈ 5% chance
Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
Despite the World Cup being a traditional Ballon d'Or barometer, this year's race is being reshaped by club performances and a narrative that the best player might not have been at the World Cup at all (talkSPORT, Jul 23).
89 outcomes
Will George Russell win the F1 Drivers Championship 2026?
George Russell's title hopes suffered a severe blow with a first-lap crash at the Belgian Grand Prix, while rookie Kimi Antonelli extended his lead with a fourth win, making the 14% Yes odds a long shot that reflects a rapidly shrinking path to the championship.
Yes ≈ 10% chance