How many 5.5 or above earthquakes July 20 - July 26?
🗂 Part of event: How many 5.5 or above earthquakes July 20 - July 26? →Tap a candidate to show/hide its line · double-tap to isolate
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: ≤8 at about a 33% chance.
The field is moderately concentrated, with the top two outcomes (9 and 10 quakes) tied at 26% each and the top three summing to 69%, but the spread across eight candidates and a 13% chance of 11 or more shows meaningful tail risk. No recent headlines are available, so the biggest shift—if any—cannot be identified from news.
📊 Base rate: Globally, the USGS records an average of about 15 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher per week, so the current odds heavily favor below-average counts (9–10) rather than the historical mean.
What's driving it
- • No clear catalyst recently: the odds appear driven by baseline seismicity patterns and trader positioning rather than any specific event.
- • The tight clustering of 9 and 10 at 26% each suggests the market sees a narrow expected range, with no strong signal pushing toward extremes.
- • The 18% chance of ≤8 indicates some traders anticipate a quiet week, possibly based on recent low activity not captured in headlines.
Why the front-runners lead
- • The 9 and 10 outcomes lead because they represent the most common weekly counts in recent USGS data, making them the default bets without a catalyst.
- • Money is spread nearly evenly between 9 and 10, showing no consensus on a single number but a belief the total will be near the lower end of the typical range.
- • The base rate of ~15 per week is far above the front-runners, so the market is pricing a significantly quieter-than-average week, likely due to recent observed quiescence.
Why it's still open
- • The field is open because 11+ quakes collectively have 33% odds, meaning a single moderate swarm could push the count above 10 and upend the leaders.
- • A major subduction-zone event (e.g., in the Pacific Ring of Fire) could trigger aftershocks that rapidly add 2–3 quakes, making 11 or 12 the new favorite.
- • If USGS data shows a cluster of moderate quakes early in the week, traders could shift money from 9/10 to higher counts, but no such data is reported in available headlines.
What to watch
- • July 20–26 daily USGS updates: each day’s quake count will shift odds toward the actual total, with early high counts boosting higher outcomes and low counts reinforcing the front-runners.
- • A magnitude 7.0+ earthquake anywhere in the world during the window would likely trigger a flurry of aftershocks, pushing the market toward 11+.
- • No scheduled events are known; the only catalysts are real-time seismic reports from USGS.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between July 20, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and July 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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