How many 5.5 or above earthquakes July 27 - August 2?
🗂 Part of event: How many 5.5 or above earthquakes July 27 - August 2? →Tap a candidate to show/hide its line · double-tap to isolate
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: ≤6 at about a 24% chance.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between July 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Polymarket ↗Related markets
Which company has best AI model end of July?
Anthropic holds an extraordinary 98% concentration, yet the provided headlines contain zero mentions of AI model releases or leaderboard shifts, implying the market's extreme odds are based on the absence of challenger news rather than any new advantage.
26 outcomes
Best Chinese AI Company end of July?
Alibaba's 78% odds reflect its dominant position on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard, but the market's narrow focus on a single leaderboard snapshot creates a binary between Alibaba and Moonshot, with the rest of the field effectively out of contention.
25 outcomes
Best AI model on August 1?
The field is exceptionally concentrated: Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking holds 81% due to a dominant lead in the Arena.ai Text Arena Overall leaderboard that has persisted for weeks, and no headline or recent movement suggests a challenger is closing the gap—the biggest shift is the 24-hour +1 point gain for the leader, reinforcing its momentum without any competitive threat surfacing in the news.
4 outcomes
Which company has the third best AI model end of July?
The field is effectively a one-horse race with Anthropic at 99%, a level of concentration that is extreme even for a prediction market, and the only recent headlines are entirely unrelated to AI, suggesting the odds are driven by stale or unverifiable information rather than new developments.
26 outcomes
Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of September?
30 outcomes
Which company has the best AI Agent end of August?
32 outcomes