2028 Presidential Election Winner — 2028 Presidential Election Winner
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: JD Vance at about a 18% chance.
Data from Smarkets’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by the source platform according to the rules written into this specific market.
Resolution criteria
Who will win the 2028 United States presidential election?
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Smarkets ↗Related markets
Next General Election - Most Seats
The field is moderately concentrated with Labour leading at 36%, but Reform UK and Conservative are close; the biggest recent shift is Reform UK overtaking the Conservatives for second place, as seen in the stated odds, though no headline directly explains this.
9 outcomes
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
The field is unusually concentrated on two candidates—RFK Jr. (a registered Democrat) and J.D. Vance—who together command 92% of the market, yet the third-place candidate (Rubio) trails at 28%, reflecting a fragmented race where the front-runner's party affiliation is a major unresolved question.
128 outcomes