World prediction markets
Global events and everything else, aggregated from every source into one neutral view.
957 markets · page 3 of 40
Will the United States confiscate privately owned gold collections before 2035?
Yes ≈ 3% chance
Global events and everything else, aggregated from every source into one neutral view.
957 markets · page 3 of 40
Yes ≈ 3% chance
Yes ≈ 41% chance
Yes ≈ 6% chance
Yes ≈ 36% chance
Yes ≈ 3% chance
7 outcomes
Yes ≈ 67% chance
The market heavily favors 'No' at 87%, reflecting the difficulty of predicting a specific kinetic strike on a commercial ship weeks in advance, but the odds are not extreme enough to rule out a low-probability event given the Houthis' demonstrated capability and intent.
Yes ≈ 15% chance
Yes ≈ 18% chance
Yes ≈ 73% chance
Yes ≈ 21% chance
Yes ≈ 29% chance
Despite Iraq's explicit threat to leave OPEC if its quota isn't raised, the market assigns only a 12% probability to any member following the UAE's exit this year, reflecting doubts that Iraq's warning is a genuine exit plan rather than a negotiating tactic.
Yes ≈ 11% chance
Yes ≈ 71% chance
Yes ≈ 46% chance
Yes ≈ 6% chance
Yes ≈ 33% chance
Yes ≈ 74% chance
Yes ≈ 14% chance
Yes ≈ 29% chance
Yes ≈ 5% chance
Yes ≈ 14% chance
Yes ≈ 11% chance