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World prediction markets & live odds — page 73 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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World prediction markets

Global events and everything else, aggregated from every source into one neutral view.

🔭 Compare world odds across venues →

All Date Threshold Markets 6382 Climate & weather 5178 Geopolitics & conflict 1654 US Election Margins 412 Global Political Shifts 317 Health 311 Commodities & energy 262 Daily Crypto Predictions 86 Fable 5 Access 59 Country Presidents 26 Esports CS2 Events 6 Discord IPO Valuation 3

1,835 markets · page 73 of 77

Manifold· Play

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Will Israel recognise a Palestinian state by 2030?

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

Ɱ692 Vol▲ 0pts3y

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‹ Prev1…7172737475…77Next ›

Will Xi Jinping continue to lead China through end of 2028?

Yes81¢

No19¢

Yes ≈ 81% chance

Ɱ15.4K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Will Paradox Interactive publish a Cold War grand strategy game before 2030?

Yes42¢

No58¢

Yes ≈ 42% chance

Ɱ635 Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Taiwan/ROC government in exile supported by US any time through 2033

Yes29¢

No71¢

Yes ≈ 29% chance

Ɱ30 Vol▲ 0pts7y

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Will the war on Christmas still be ongoing on Jan 1 2030?

Yes55¢

No45¢

Yes ≈ 55% chance

Ɱ5 Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Will there be a military coup in the United States before 2029?

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ1.5K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Will Russia Exist in 2040?

Yes93¢

No7¢

Yes ≈ 93% chance

Ɱ1.5K Vol▲ 0pts12y

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Will a crossing of the Qiongzhou Strait, between Mainland China and Hainan, have started construction by 2035?

Yes57¢

No43¢

Yes ≈ 57% chance

Ɱ59 Vol▲ 0pts8y

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Will China invade Vietnam before 2030?

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Ɱ2.7K Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Will Bosnia and Herzegovina join NATO by EOY 2030?

Yes32¢

No69¢

Yes ≈ 32% chance

Ɱ139 Vol▲ 0pts9y

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Will China have 4 aircraft carriers by the end of 2027?

Yes44¢

No56¢

Yes ≈ 44% chance

Ɱ901 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

The 33% odds reflect a market that sees a full-scale invasion as unlikely but not negligible, driven by China's growing military capacity and strategic ambiguity, while Taiwan's deterrence and international pressure keep the No side favored.

Yes33¢

No67¢

Yes ≈ 33% chance

Ɱ574K Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Will a nuclear weapon be used militarily by the end of 2033?

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Ɱ4.9K Vol▲ 0pts7y

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Will US citizens have the opportunity to vacation in North Korea on January 1st 2040?

Yes28¢

No73¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

Ɱ1.1K Vol▲ 0pts13y

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2030: Will the World War III be named to start in 2023?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Ɱ2.2K Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Will the reactor core of a nuclear power plant melt before EOY 2030?

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

Ɱ137 Vol▲ 0pts4y

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Will UK leave NATO before 2030?

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ261 Vol▲ 0pts4y

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Will China reach an agreement to join the CPTPP by 2030?

Yes28¢

No73¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

Ɱ191 Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Will Brazil join NATO by the end of 2026?

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Ɱ1.1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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China will adopt a policy where for some job positions, having at least three children is required

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

Ɱ184 Vol▲ 0pts4y

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Will a non-test nuclear weapon detonate by 2030?

Yes19¢

No81¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

Ɱ1.8K Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Will China acquire a fusion reactor before 2031?

Yes22¢

No78¢

Yes ≈ 22% chance

Ɱ715 Vol▲ 0pts4y

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China to make the Yuan freely convertible by end of 2026?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Ɱ1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?

The market heavily discounts a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by end-2027 at 15%, reflecting a consensus that Beijing prefers coercion over outright attack, but the risk is underpinned by unresolved diplomatic flashpoints and historical patterns of miscalculation.

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

Ɱ178K Vol▲ 0pts1y