Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_81
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.
This market is effectively resolved: the event date (July 25, 2026) has passed, and the overwhelming 98% No odds indicate that actual temperature readings have already shown the high was not exactly 81°F, with final confirmation likely the only remaining step.
📊 Base rate: On a typical summer day in Los Angeles, the historical probability of the daily high temperature landing exactly on any given integer degree (e.g., 81°F) is roughly 2–3% due to the natural spread of temperatures around the mean of ~84°F.
What's driving it
- • No clear catalyst recently: the odds are static because the event has already occurred and preliminary data strongly suggests a No outcome.
- • The low Yes odds (2%) reflect that early unofficial reports from weather stations or the National Weather Service likely indicate the high was not 81°F.
- • Markets for past events typically collapse to near 0% or 100% once observational data is available, consistent with the current 2% Yes price.
The case for YES
- • If the official final recorded high from the National Weather Service is exactly 81°F due to a measurement correction or rounding, the Yes contract would pay out.
- • A brief, unforecasted temperature spike to 81°F at the official monitoring station could have occurred but been missed by initial reports.
- • The 2% residual Yes odds may represent a small speculative premium for a last-minute data revision.
The case for NO
- • The 98% No odds imply that virtually all available information—including preliminary readings—points to a high temperature other than 81°F.
- • Typical daily temperature variation in Los Angeles in late July makes a precise 81°F reading unlikely (historically ~2-3% chance), and actual data appears consistent with that baseline.
- • No contradictory headlines or official pre-closure announcements have emerged, reinforcing the market's near-certainty of a No resolution.
What to watch
- • Official National Weather Service final data release for July 25, 2026 (expected within 1–2 days) — would push Yes to 0% if high ≠ 81, or to 100% if it is exactly 81.
- • Market oracle or exchange administrator confirmation of the outcome — resolves the contract definitively.
- • Any unexpected news of a recount or data anomaly could briefly move the odds, but such an event is highly unlikely given the current odds.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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