Number of FOMC meetings with FED interest rate cuts in the US in 2026
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: 0 at about a 72% chance — likely.
The market is heavily concentrated on zero cuts (72%), reflecting a clear consensus that the Fed under new Chair Warsh will hold rates steady through 2026. The recent Fed minutes (Jul 8) revealing 'inflation concerns grew' and a 'family fight' over rates have solidified the no-cut view, pushing the one-cut option below 25%.
📊 Base rate: Omitted due to inability to ground a defensible historical statistic without inventing.
What's driving it
- • July 8 Fed minutes showed policymakers' inflation concerns intensified, reducing expectations for any rate cuts in 2026 (Reuters, Jul 8).
- • Chair Kevin Warsh's July 15 statement that 'Prices are too high' reinforced the hawkish stance, lowering the probability of a first cut (Chase Bank, Jul 15).
- • The reported split among Fed officials on rate direction (CNBC, Jul 8) suggests no consensus for easing, further boosting the zero-cut front-runner.
Why the front-runners lead
- • Zero cuts leads because the July minutes highlighted that inflation worries 'grew' at the June meeting, making preemptive cuts unlikely (Reuters, Jul 8).
- • Warsh's public comments (Chase Bank, Jul 15) align with holding rates, and as new chair his first minutes showed a 'family fight', implying a cautious approach (Barron's, Jul 8).
- • The market sees a divided committee as unable to agree on cuts, so the default outcome is no action (CNBC, Jul 8).
Why it's still open
- • The 21% for one cut shows some belief that a later meeting could see a cut if economic data weakens significantly or inflation drops.
- • For the one-cut or more scenarios to overtake, we would need a sustained decline in inflation or clear signs of recession, which are currently absent from the headlines.
- • The split in the committee means that if dovish members gain influence, odds for a cut could rise, but the hawkish majority from the minutes suggests that shift is unlikely soon.
What to watch
- • The next FOMC meeting decision (likely late July or September 2026) will be a key test: a hold would reinforce zero-cut odds; a surprise cut would massively boost higher-cut candidates.
- • Upcoming CPI and PCE inflation releases (monthly) could shift expectations: lower prints would increase the chance of a cut, higher prints would lock in zero cuts.
- • Any new public signal from Chair Warsh or the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections (if released later in 2026) would provide a clearer direction, likely tilting toward zero if inflation remarks persist.
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Data from Futuur’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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