Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: December 31 at about a 45% chance — a coin toss.
The field is extremely concentrated on a single date (December 31 at 47%) with no other candidate above 5%, and the recent +2pt move has no clear catalyst in available headlines, indicating a silent adjustment by traders.
What's driving it
- • The December 31 probability rose 2 points in the past 24 hours with no identified news catalyst (no recent headlines).
- • The June 30 outcome remains at 0%, suggesting the market believes capture will occur before that date if it happens at all, but this is a logical inference rather than headline-driven.
Why the front-runners lead
- • December 31 leads because it is the nearest plausible deadline for a Russian offensive to achieve a tactical victory in the area, and traders may be pricing in seasonal battlefield dynamics.
- • The 0% for June 30 implies that the market sees capture as almost certain to have happened by then if it hasn't yet, which reinforces the lead of the earlier date.
Why it's still open
- • The field is open only in the sense that the December 31 probability has not crossed 50%, leaving room for a later date if Russian forces slow down or fail to capture the town.
- • However, with no other candidate above 5%, the market sees almost no chance of capture occurring after December 31 or not at all, making a meaningful shift unlikely without a major news event.
What to watch
- • No dated catalysts are identified from the provided data; any future battlefield reports from the Donetsk region would be the primary drivers of movement.
- • A Ukrainian counteroffensive or a Russian breakthrough near Kostyantynivka would sharply shift odds toward or away from the December 31 deadline.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from InsightX’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Settled by the source platform according to the rules written into this specific market.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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