US charges Hormuz fees by...?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: July 31 at about a 0% chance.
The market is essentially deadlocked at 0% for both candidates, reflecting extreme uncertainty after a flurry of July 14 headlines about Trump's proposed 20% toll on Strait of Hormuz traffic, but no clear resolution or implementation date has emerged, leaving odds flat.
📊 Base rate: For geopolitical prediction markets on specific policy actions (like imposing a fee on a strategic waterway), historical resolution rates are low—typically under 10%—because such proposals often face legal, diplomatic, or logistical hurdles before becoming reality.
What's driving it
- • The July 14 surge in headlines, including Trump's threats and U.S. strikes on Iran (AP News, Jul 14), created a spike in attention but no corresponding move in odds, suggesting traders see the fee as unlikely to materialize soon.
- • Global shipping industry alarm and expert warnings about 'a very dangerous Pandora's Box' (CBS News, Jul 14; CNBC, Jul 14) likely reinforce skepticism that the fee will be implemented, keeping both candidates at 0%.
- • The lack of any specific date or mechanism for the fee in the headlines (e.g., no executive order or legislative action) means the market has no concrete catalyst to price in, leaving odds stuck at zero.
Why the front-runners lead
- • The July 31 candidate leads (tied at 0%) because it is the nearest possible date, but the absence of any implementation announcement makes it a placeholder rather than a real front-runner.
- • The July 17 candidate also leads (tied at 0%) as the next-closest date, but with no news of a fee being imposed by that date, it reflects only the market's default expectation of no action.
Why it's still open
- • Any candidate could overtake if a specific date is announced for the fee, but the current 0% odds across the board mean the field is wide open to any new date or event that breaks the deadlock.
- • To overtake, a candidate would need a concrete trigger—such as an executive order, a congressional bill, or a formal U.S. tariff on Hormuz traffic—which none of the July 14 headlines provided.
What to watch
- • A formal U.S. announcement of a specific implementation date for the Hormuz fee (e.g., via executive order or Treasury directive) would likely shift odds sharply toward that date, but no such event is scheduled.
- • Any escalation in U.S.-Iran military conflict (e.g., further strikes or blockade enforcement, as reported by Bloomberg, Jul 14) could create pressure for a fee, but the direction is uncertain—it might delay or accelerate the policy.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from InsightX’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by the source platform according to the rules written into this specific market.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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