US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by...?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: July 31 at about a 44% chance.
The field is extremely concentrated on July 31 at 36% with no other option above 5%, yet no recent headline explains this move, leaving the odds entirely driven by speculation or stale news.
📊 Base rate: In past US military engagements, specific deadlines for halting operations have often been missed or extended, suggesting that high confidence in a precise date is historically rare.
What's driving it
- • No clear catalyst recently; the shift from July 24 (0%) to July 31 (36%) lacks a grounded explanation in any provided headline.
Why the front-runners lead
- • July 31 leads at 36% likely because it is the next plausible deadline after July 24, allowing for continued diplomacy or military pressure without immediate cessation.
- • The absence of any other candidate above 5% suggests the market sees July 31 as the only realistic date for a halt announcement.
Why it's still open
- • The field is not open: July 24 is at 0%, meaning the market assigns virtually no chance to an immediate halt, but a new headline could revive that possibility.
- • To overtake July 31, an earlier date would require a sudden breakthrough in negotiations or a unilateral US decision, both of which are unpredictable from current data.
What to watch
- • Any new statement from the US administration on Iran negotiations (unknown date) could shift odds to an earlier or later date depending on tone.
- • A military incident or escalatory action would likely reduce the probability of a near-term halt, pushing odds to later dates or zero.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from InsightX’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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