Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Hong Wang at about a 100% chance — almost certain.
The market has effectively resolved: Hong Wang and Yu Deng have been announced as the 2026 Fields Medal winners, making the field 100% concentrated on two names with all others at zero.
📊 Base rate: Prior to 2026, no Chinese national had ever won the Fields Medal, making this a historic first as reported by BBC and CNN (Jul 24).
What's driving it
- • Official confirmation from multiple outlets (CNN, BBC, Firstpost) on July 24-25 established Hong Wang and Yu Deng as the winners, moving their odds to 100%.
- • The announcement of a historic first—two Chinese nationals from Peking University winning the medal—was widely covered by CCTV and Chosun Ilbo (Jul 24-25), solidifying the result.
Why the front-runners lead
- • Both candidates have been explicitly named as winners by authoritative sources, so their odds reflect a resolved outcome with no further uncertainty.
- • The market aggregates information that the prize has been awarded; the 100% probability for each is consistent with the joint win being confirmed.
Why it's still open
- • No other candidate can win because the Fields Medal has already been awarded to the announced recipients.
- • The odds for any other mathematician are effectively zero, as the announcement closes the field.
What to watch
- • No upcoming events can change the outcome; the award has been made public and finalized.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from InsightX’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Settled by the source platform according to the rules written into this specific market.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on InsightX ↗Related markets
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