Will Lil Nas X have a top 10 song this year?

🗂 Part of event: Who will have a top 10 song this year? →

15¢Yes

10% 0 pts all-time

Yes

15¢

85¢

💡 What the odds say

The market puts this at about a 15% chance — unlikely.

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No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 15% right now.

StatusOpen

ClosesDec 26, 2026 · 5mo

Total volume$64

Open interest$64

ListedJan 1, 2026

Source

Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.

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How it resolves

Regulated exchangeSettled by Kalshi (CFTC-regulated)

Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.

Closes Dec 26, 2026 (5mo)

Resolution criteria

If Lil Nas X has a top 10 song on the Billboard Hot 100 (including features), by the Billboard issue for the week of Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.

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