Will bill that mandates the creation and issuance of a $250 U.S. bill featuring Donald J. Trump's likeness becomes law before Jan 1, 2027?
🗂 Part of event: Will Trump create a $250 bill featuring himself? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 7% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 7% right now.
The market heavily doubts a bill mandating a $250 Trump bill will become law by 2027, reflecting the extreme unlikelihood of such a niche proposal passing Congress and being signed, even with Trump as a candidate or president.
📊 Base rate: Bills that mandate specific currency designs or denominations are extremely rare; no such bill has become law in the U.S. in the past 50 years, making the historical base rate for this reference class near 0%.
What's driving it
- • No clear catalyst recently; the odds are driven by the inherent improbability of the bill passing through both chambers and being signed into law within a short timeframe.
- • The 94% No odds reflect the market's assessment that such a symbolic and non-urgent bill faces steep legislative hurdles, including committee inaction and lack of bipartisan support.
The case for YES
- • If Trump wins the 2024 presidential election and Republicans control Congress, a symbolic bill honoring him could gain traction as a political statement, though still unlikely.
- • The bill could be attached as a rider to must-pass legislation, increasing its chances of enactment despite low standalone support.
The case for NO
- • The bill would require a two-thirds majority in both chambers to override a potential veto, which is highly improbable given its niche nature.
- • Congress has no recent precedent for mandating a specific denomination featuring a living person, and the Treasury Department would likely oppose such a mandate on practical grounds.
- • The 2027 deadline is less than 18 months away, leaving insufficient time for the bill to navigate committee hearings, floor votes, and conference negotiations.
What to watch
- • If Trump wins the 2024 election (Nov 5, 2024), odds for Yes could rise slightly due to increased political will, but remain low.
- • If the bill is formally introduced and assigned to a committee with a hearing scheduled, odds for Yes might increase modestly, but still below 20%.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If bill that mandates the creation and issuance of a $250 U.S. bill featuring Donald J. Trump's likeness becomes law before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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