Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Aug 1, 2026?
🗂 Part of event: When will Anthropic release the next Mythos-Class model? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 4% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 4% right now.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If Anthropic releases a model under Anthropic's Mythos tier — including models branded "Mythos" or "Fable" - excluding Claude Fable 5 (released June 9, 2026) before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
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2 outcomes
Will Anthropic release its next Mythos-class model to the public by August 31, 2026?
Yes ≈ 46% chance
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52 outcomes