Will someone be nominated for member of the Election Assistance Commission before Jan 1, 2027?
🗂 Part of event: When will Trump nominate someone to the Election Assistance Commission? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 36% chance — less likely than not.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 36% right now.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If any person is nominated to be member of the Election Assistance Commission after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027. then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
Next General Election - Most Seats
The field is moderately concentrated with Labour leading at 36%, but Reform UK and Conservative are close; the biggest recent shift is Reform UK overtaking the Conservatives for second place, as seen in the stated odds, though no headline directly explains this.
9 outcomes
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
The Republican nomination field is exceptionally fragmented, with no candidate above 5% and the top three sum to just 1% — a sign that the race is truly wide open and still in its earliest jockeying phase, despite a recent poll placing Senator JD Vance near the top of a generic primary ballot (USA Today, Jul 23).
2 outcomes
Fed Decision in July?
Despite oil surging near $100 and resurfacing inflation fears, the market is overwhelmingly pricing in no rate change at the July FOMC meeting, suggesting traders see the Fed as willing to look through energy-driven price pressures for now.
5 outcomes
2028 Presidential Election Winner
The field is unusually fragmented with no candidate above 18%, and the top three sum to just 41%, reflecting a wide-open race where the biggest recent shift is the absence of a clear front-runner despite ongoing midterm elections and controversies over election integrity. The 2026 primary results (NBC News, Jul 23) are reshaping candidate viability, but no single contender has consolidated support yet.
40 outcomes
Brazil’s Next President Elect
The race is a two-person contest between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, with Lula consistently widening his lead in recent polls (Reuters, Jul 1, Jun 16, Jun 10), making a third-party upset highly unlikely in the near term.
9 outcomes